Breaking Down the Field for the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush

Royal Portrush is the only Open Championship rota course in Northern Ireland and one of the purest links tests in the world. Its routing is carved into coastal dunes, with fairways and greens merging into dramatic elevation changes and sweeping slopes. Nothing here is built up or artificial. Every contour flows from the raw, windswept terrain. Exposed on a narrow spit of land along the north coast, each hole faces swirling, unpredictable winds that can alter strategy from hour to hour. The layout is long, winding, and narrow. Deep fairway pot bunkers and thick fescue demand pinpoint driving. Steep aprons, persistent undulations, and hidden run-offs protect massive greens.

Shane Lowry won at Portrush in 2019 in impressive fashion, finishing six shots clear of Tommy Fleetwood in second. He dominated the field in greens in regulation, hitting 57 of 72 greens. That simple statistic proved extremely predictive—of the 13 players who hit at least 50 greens, 11 finished inside the top 20. The leaderboard contained few pure bombers or specialists. It was dominated by well-rounded golfers who keep the ball in play off the tee and consistently strike their irons. Also of note, only four of the 19 players at 2 under or better were American, and each of them boasted extensive Open and DP World Tour links experience.

What really stood out to me was Lowry’s ground game. Watching back highlights, Shane rarely flew the ball directly at pins. He leaned on bump-and-runs, low-flighted irons, and runners off sweeping aprons, using the slopes and contours to feed the ball towards pins. Consistent execution across the bag remains essential on any major championship golf course, but at Portrush, the winner will likely be the player who combines that with true links strategy and imagination.

Ranking the top players in the 2025 Open Championship field

1. Rory McIlroy

2025 PGA Tour Results: 2 - 6* - 19* - MC - 47* - 7* - 12 - 1* - 5 - 1* - 15* - 17* - 1*

Open Championship Results: MC - 6 - 3 - 46 - MC (Portrush) - 2 - 4 - 5 - 1 - MC - 60 - 25 - 3 - 47 - 42

Rory McIlroy arrives at Portrush with a whirlwind of storylines: the chance to win on home soil, his 2019 missed cut, swing tweaks, media friction, and admitted motivation dips after securing the career Grand Slam. And yet, he is still my top pick to win this week. His 2019 missed cut was triggered by a quadruple bogey on the opening hole, but he roared back with a 65 on Friday proving his comfort on these links. Off-season wedge tweaks added more creativity and feel on short approaches, which contributed to three wins this season and should be extremely valuable in navigating these coastal dunes. Rory’s post-Masters slump flipped beginning with a low Sunday round of 67 at the U.S. Open, and was bolstered by a good week at the Travelers (T-6), and a runner-up finish at the Scottish Open. As for the motivation, the one thing that might rival the Masters and career grand slam might be winning the Open on his home soil in Northern Ireland. After the trying week at the Masters he is likely more ready to handle that pressure. I expect him to be dialed in and contending on Sunday, buoyed by a raucous home crowd.

2. Jon Rahm

2025 LIV Results: 2 - 11 - 7* - 8 - 8* - 7 - 4 - 14* - 9 - 5 - 6 - 6 - 2

Open Championship Results: 7 - 2 - 34 - 3 - 11 (Portrush) - 18 - 44 - 59 

Jon Rahm has built momentum in the majors this season: T-14 at the Masters, T-8 at the PGA, and T-7 at the U.S. Open. He’s gained in all four categories and improved his ball-striking each week. A return to the UK and links golf bodes well for another step forward. He’s had three top-seven finishes in the Open since 2021, including a T-2 at Hoylake in 2023. He has all the shots needed for links golf and showed a liking for Portrush with a T-11 in 2019. 

He just completed his best LIV Golf week of the season at Andalucia, finishing second and saying, “Felt really in control all week. Honestly, I probably hit it better than I have in the last year and a half.” If he avoids the blow-ups and bogey trains that’ve crept into his major scorecards, he will have a real chance to join three-time Open champ Seve Ballesteros as the second Spaniard to lift the Claret Jug.

3. Scottie Scheffler

2025 PGA Tour Results: 8 - 6* - 7* - 1* - 4 - 1* - 1 - 8* - 4* - 2 - 20* - 11* - 3* - 25 - 9* 

Open Championship Results: 7 - 23 - 21 - 8

Scottie Scheffler arrives in a mini-slump by his own impossibly high standards, with a T-8 at the Scottish, T-6 at the Travelers, and T-7 at the U.S. Open. He’s still elite, but he enters his weakest major without that unbeatable lead-in form. On courses where you can attack defined targets, flight the ball at pins and rely on precise distance control, Scottie often looks unbeatable. Links golf and Portrush’s unique challenges test him differently, and he has yet to contend on a links layout. His putting—despite marked improvement—has been a liability in the U.K., losing strokes in each of his last six starts.

He remains the world’s most consistent ball-striker and his knack for avoiding big mistakes should keep him in contention. Without a proven links track record, however, I am far less bullish on his chances at this major.

4. Xander Schauffele

2025 PGA Tour Results:  6 - 61* - 12* - 25* - 28* - 11* - 18* - 8* - 12 - 72*- 40* - 30

Open Championship Results: 1 - 17 - 15 - 26 - 41 (Portrush) - 2 - 20 

We’ve been waiting all season for Xander’s game to click. The defending Open champion missed time early with a rib injury and has struggled to reproduce the all-around game that earned him two major victories in 2024. We may finally be seeing a turnaround. He gained strokes in all four categories in a T-12 at the U.S. Open, and just led the Scottish Open field tee-to-green while gaining a massive 9.1 strokes on approach. A below-average week with the putter limited him to T-6, but this resurgent ball-striking bodes well for Portrush, where hitting greens in regulation was vital in 2019. He has made the cut in all seven of his Open starts and should be a serious threat in his title defense.

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5. Shane Lowry

2025 PGA Tour Results: 45* - MC* - 13 - 23* - MC* - 2* - 12 - 18* - 42* - 8 - 20* - 7* - 11 - 39 - 2* - MC

Open Championship Results: 6 - MC - 21 - 12 - 1 (Portrush) - MC - MC - MC - MC - 9 - 32 - 27

In 2019 at Portrush, Shane Lowry looked like he was playing a different course. While most of the field struggled to break par, he fired rounds of 67-67-63 to set a 54-hole Open scoring record, then cruised to a six-shot victory with a 72 in cold, rainy, windy conditions. It was a masterclass in links golf—stingers, knockdowns, and bump-and-runs off greenside slopes—and he led the field with 20 birdies by using the ground as much as the air.

That performance had me eager to pick Shane all season, and his 2025 form has only reinforced that. He has been a top-20 fixture, nearly won signature events at Pebble Beach and the Truist, and ranks third on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach. His only real limiter has been an inconsistent putter, which should be less of a concern on home soil and links greens, especially considering the putting performance put on in 2019. Admittedly, fond memories of that win may cloud my objectivity, but I can’t recall anyone looking more at home on such a difficult golf course. I love Shane’s chances to lift the Claret Jug at Portrush again.

6. Tommy Fleetwood

2025 PGA Tour Results: 34 - 2* - MC* - 16* - 4 - 41* - 4* - 7* - 21* - 62 - 16 - 14* - 11* - 5* - 22

Open Championship Results: MC - 10 - 4 - 33 - 2 (Portrush) - 12 - 27 - MC - MC

Tommy Fleetwood was Lowry’s only challenger at Portrush in 2019, finishing solo second and two shots clear of third. He backed that up with Open finishes of T-4 and T-10 in 2022 and 2023, and has shown a clear affinity for links, recording six top fives at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

He checks every box for major golf—accurate off the tee, elite with his irons, and resourceful around the greens. His world-class ability to shape and flight irons really shines on links. Tommy has been ever-present near the top of leaderboards all season, and it feels like a short matter of time before he finally breaks through. Perhaps the comfort of links golf is what pushes him over the line. 

7. Tyrrell Hatton

2025 LIV Golf Results: 23 - 5 - 4* - 15 - 60* - 13 - 5 - 14* - 33 - 19 - 20 - 23 - 6

Open Championship Results: MC - 20 - 11 - MC - 6 (Portrush) - 51 - MC - 5 - MC - MC - MC - MC

It might raise eyebrows to see Tyrrell Hatton high on the odds board, but his form and fit are spot-on for Portrush. He recently finished a stroke outside of a playoff at LIV Dallas, and is finding his stride in majors, nearly winning at Oakmont (T-4) and finishing T-14 at Augusta, a strong result for a course he claims to hate. Portrush is a course Tyrrell should love. He’s one of the most accomplished links players in the field. He finished T-6 here in 2019, T-5 at Royal Troon in 2016, and collected his third Alfred Dunhill Links title in October. A ninth professional win against a strong field in January’s Hero Dubai Desert Classic further showcased his ability to close out golf tournaments. The fiery Englishman is capable of the odd blow-up, but he is as good as anybody on tight, windy links like Royal Portrush, and has a real shot at lifting the Claret Jug.

8. Viktor Hovland

2025 PGA Tour Results: 11 - 3* - 25* - 28* - 54* - 13* - 21* - 1* - MC - MC - MC - 22 - 36

Open Championship Results: MC - 13 - 4 - 12

I wrote Viktor Hovland off at the U.S. Open because of his persistent scrambling woes, only to look foolish as he finished solo-third and nearly led the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. Oddly, those scrambling issues haven’t plagued him in majors: five of his top seven weeks around the green have come in those events, which more than offsets his current 153rd-rank in scrambling percentage.

Better yet, his elite ball-striking has returned after a lengthy slump amid swing changes. He ranked third in SG: Approach at Oakmont and fourth at the Scottish Open. Greens-in-regulation was hugely predictive at Portrush in 2019, and with his irons back in form, he’s well positioned to lead the field in that category. Even with last year’s missed cut, his prior Open success and resurgent ball-striking suggest he’s ready to contend again.

9. Justin Rose

2025 PGA Tour Results:  6 - MC- MC - 44* - MC* - 42* - 2* - 47 - MC* - 8* - MC* - 3* - MC

Open Championship Results: 2 - MC - 46 - 20 (Portrush) - 2 - 54 - 22 - 6 - 23 - MC - MC - 44 - MC - 13 - 70 - 12 - MC - 22 - 30 - MC - 4

Justin Rose is hardly reliable every week, but he still knows how to flip the switch at big events. This season, his playoff loss at Augusta and a T-3 at Pebble Beach both followed strings of poor results. And last year, his T-2 at the Open and T-6 at the PGA Championship came after several months of mediocre finishes.

Given that history alone, Rosey might be a safe bet at Royal Portrush, where he was 9 under and T-4 through three rounds in 2019. This time though, he arrives with genuine momentum after firing a final-round 63 to finish sixth at the Scottish Open. He was every bit prime Justin Rose last week, near his best SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach numbers of the past decade.

He will have no equal when it comes to course management strategy on these contoured links. If he can carry that Scottish ball-striking form across the North Channel to Royal Portrush, the two-time Open runner-up could be very much in the mix once again.

10. Sepp Straka

2025 PGA Tour Results: 7 - 45* - MC* - 3* - MC* - 1* - 12 - 13* - MC* - 28 - 14 - 5* - 11 - MC - 15 - 7* - 1 - 30 - 15

Open Championship Results: 22 - 2 - MC 

Missed cuts at the Masters, PGA and U.S. Open mask what has otherwise been a standout season. Sepp has notched two victories and eleven top-15 finishes in 2025 while demonstrating elite ball-striking as he’s fourth on Tour in greens in regulation percentage. He has also proven he can compete in strong fields, with a win and two top fives in signature events.

Those three duds at the majors raise legitimate red flags, but his runner-up at the 2023 Open at Hoylake might indicate he can better handle the pressures of this championship. His approach play will be invaluable on this firm, fast links, and an exceptional scrambling and putting week at the Scottish Open suggests he might carry a hot short game into Royal Portrush. I’m wary of over-optimism after getting burned three times this year, but Sepp has the game to make a deep run this week. 

11. Robert MacIntyre

2025 PGA Tour Results: 17* - 2* - 36 - 20* - 6 - 47* - 34* - 66* - MC* - 9* - 11* - MC* - 6 - 40* - 53 - 15

Open Championship Results: 50 - 71 - 34 - 8 - 6 (Portrush)

In 2019, a 22-year-old Robert MacIntyre tied for sixth at Royal Portrush in his Open debut as the 146th ranked golfer in the world. Six years and four Opens later, he returns ranked 14th and brimming with confidence after a second-place finish at the U.S. Open. He stumbled as the defending champion at the Scottish Open last week, but both of his 2024 wins came on the heels of a missed cut, so a quick rebound feels likely on a track that will suit him. The Scot is an extremely seasoned links player who steps up in big events and embraces the imaginative approach Portrush demands. He will be a popular pick this week, and he deserves to be. 

12. Russell Henley

2025 PGA Tour Results: 2* -10* - 5* - MC* - 46* - 8* - MC* - 30 - 1* - 6 - 39* - 5* - 10 - 30

Open Championship Results: 5 - MC - 62 - MC - MC - 37 - MC - 20 - MC - 73

World-class early-season form reemerged in June when Russell Henley finished T-2 and T-5 in signature events and delivered a top 10 at the U.S. Open at Oakmont. He now has eight top 10s and a victory this season, making him all but certain for the Ryder Cup team. His well-rounded game suits demanding major setups—provided the course doesn’t reach outrageous length. Until last year questions lingered about his Open pedigree, but a fifth-place finish at Royal Troon should fuel his confidence and ability to extend this hot stretch into Royal Portrush.

13. Brooks Koepka

2025 LIV Golf Results: 32  - 12* - 33 - MC* - 17 - 30 - MC* - 18 - 2 - 35 - 7 - 33

Open Championship Results: 43 - 64 - MC - 6 - 4 (Portrush) - 39 - 6 - 10 - 67 - MC

After two years of uninspiring major finishes, Brooks Koepka finally flashed a hint of that menacing championship form in the U.S. Open at Oakmont. He opened with an impressive 68 and held on for a T-12, his best result since winning the 2023 PGA Championship. He was once a fixture near the top at the Open with four top 10s in five starts between 2015 and 2021, including a T-4 at Portrush. Koepka got his start on the DP World Tour and has further proven his links prowess with four top 10s at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

His LIV results this season remain underwhelming, but Koepka was always able to flip a switch at the majors. A confidence-inspiring week at Oakmont may be all he needs to reignite that spark.

14. Ludvig Aberg

2025 PGA Tour Results: 8 - 36 - MC* - 13 - 16* - MC* - 60* - 54* - 7 - MC - MC - 22* - 1* - 42 - 

Open Championship Results: MC 

Ludvig Aberg’s immense talent and a handful of eye-catching weeks keep the young Swede on everyone’s radar, but he’s shown he can also bomb out. He won a signature event at Torrey Pines early in the season and pushed Rory and Rose all the way to the 72nd hole at Augusta, yet he missed the cut at the Players, PGA Championship, and U.S. Open, and has tumbled down leaderboards in several no-cut tournaments.

His strong showing at the Scottish Open this week, gaining strokes across the board and ranking inside the top 10 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation, puts him back in the conversation. He missed the cut in his lone Open start last year and still needs more links experience, but those intoxicating flashes of low, piercing ball flights make him one to watch. There’s a wide range of outcomes here, but Ludvig certainly belongs on the list, even if only for what he could become in future Opens.

15. Collin Morikawa

2025 PGA Tour Results: MC - 8 - 42* - 23* - 20* - 50* - 17* - 54* - 14* - 10* - 2* - 17* - 17* - 2

Open Championship Results:  16 - MC - MC - 1 

In theory, Collin Morikawa should fit Portrush perfectly: a past Open champion who excels at hitting fairways and greens. But on the golf course this season, Collin has infrequently looked like the player who won at Royal St. George’s in his Open debut. His only top-10 finish in the last four months was a T-8 in a weak Rocket Mortgage field, he just missed the cut by five strokes at the Scottish Open, and he has yet to threaten the leaderboard in any major this season. The stats add to the concern. His short game has been a mess, and although he has flashed elite iron weeks, he has lost strokes on approach in three of his last six starts. At Portrush, the constant gusts and undulations often demand varied shot shapes, which might make his go-to stock fade less reliable. His pedigree as a recent Open champion deserves some respect and his continued world-class driving accuracy offers some optimism, but the rest of the game doesn’t look sharp enough to contend on a difficult links golf course. 

16. Patrick Reed

2025 LIV Golf Results: 10 - 1 - 23* - 23 - MC* - 4 - 17 - 3* - 7 - 25 - 10 - 37 - 44

Open Championship Results: 33 - 47 - MC - 10 (Portrush) - 28 - MC - 12 - 20 - MC

With the Ryder Cup looming and rumors that he is persona non grata on the American team, Patrick Reed must be relishing the opportunity to stick one to the critics—and he looks poised to do so. He captured his first LIV win in Dallas with a tee-to-green masterclass, prevailing despite dropping strokes with his usually reliable putter. A solo third at Augusta in April showed his continued ability to compete on big stages, and a T-10 at Portrush in 2019 proves his comfort on this setup. He has extensive links experience and loves to move the ball. You know Patrick is well-aware of the Ryder Cup chatter, and he is certainly salty enough to let that fuel a big week.

17. Jordan Spieth

2025 PGA Tour Results: 23* -  7* - 36 - MC* - 34* - 4 - 18* - 14* - 12 - 28 - 59* - 9 - MC* - 4 - 69*

Open Championship Results: 25 - 23 - 8 - 2 - 20 (Portrush) - 9 - 1 - 30 - 4 - 36 - 44

I know I might be in the minority, but I am quite intrigued by Jordan Spieth this week. He is one of the most consistent Open performers of his generation, with ten straight made cuts and no finish worse than 25th since his 2017 victory at Royal Birkdale.

His results this season have been underwhelming, but the numbers hint at potential upside. He has been strong off the tee and solid around the greens, though his iron play and putting have swung wildly from week to week. He has logged several hot weeks on the greens and a handful of spike weeks on approach, yet he has not yet combined those strengths in a single event. It is not impossible to imagine that happening, especially since last time we saw him he gained 8.6 strokes on approach at Oakmont, his best iron week since 2018. He tied for 20th at Portrush in 2019 despite an ugly final-round 79. With his steady Open record, he seems a safe bet to make the weekend, and should he reproduce the iron performance from Oakmont, he would offer some genuine upside. 

18. Matt Fitzpatrick

2025 PGA Tour Results: 4 - 8 - 17* - 38* - 31* - 8* - 23* - 38* - 40* - MC - MC* - 22* - 49* - MC - 48

Open Championship Results: 50 - 41 - 21 -  26 - 20 (Portrush) - MC - 44 - MC - 44

A year-long slump seems to be ending just in time for a late-season Ryder Cup push. A T-8 at the PGA Championship came out of nowhere, and although he didn’t immediately build on it, he has now posted three solid weeks in a row and looks increasingly confident. As he put it, “I feel more confident in my game and the shots that I’m hitting. I definitely feel there have been some good underlying performances that haven’t necessarily equaled the results.”

He has been great tee-to-green in his past three starts, and a return to the U.K. got his putter hot as he contended down the stretch at the Scottish Open (T-4). His Open record isn’t stellar, but a T-20 at Portrush in 2019 is his best finish, and his 2023 Alfred Dunhill Links victory proves he has the game to thrive on a links set-up. 

19. Justin Thomas

2025 PGA Tour Results: 22 - 9* - MC* - 31* - MC* - 2* - 1* - 36* - 2 - 33* - 36* - 9* - 6 - 48 - 2 - 26

Open Championship Results: 31 - MC - 53 - 40 - 11 (Portrush) - MC - MC - MC 

Justin Thomas has been remarkably boom or bust all season. He has a win, three runner-ups, and three more top 10s, yet in every other start he either missed the cut or finished outside the top 25. That volatility comes down to his driver. He has struggled on demanding layouts like Oakmont, Muirfield Village and Quail Hollow, but he’s thrived at more forgiving courses where he can lay back off the tee. Portrush offers some relief with playable rough and a few less-than-driver holes, but pot bunkering and the steep, fescue-covered dunes punish big misses, which have been a regular part of Justin’s golf this season. Furthering the concern, Justin hit just 36% of fairways in Scotland this week. His best Open result is a T-11 here in 2019, which is encouraging, but I suspect he will still find too much fescue to seriously contend.

20. Bryson DeChambeau

2025 LIV Golf Results: 30 - 9 - MC* - 4 - 2* - 1 - 2 - 5* - 5 - 10 - 20 - 18 - 6

Open Championship Results: MC - 60 - 8 - 33 - MC (Portrush)  - 51 - MC

Bryson DeChambeau’s reputation and popularity keep him near the top of the odds board, but his Open record doesn’t back that up. His lone bright spot, a T-8 at St. Andrews, came on flat, spacious fairways that suit his length. On tighter, sloping links like Portrush, though, he’s come undone—three missed cuts and two finishes outside the top 50 across seven Opens.

Bryson is hardly what you’d call a feel player, so contending at a pure links test seems unlikely. His high, towering shots get battered by coastal gusts, and he’s too mechanical to handle the uneven lies and imaginative, flighted shots these courses demand. To make matters worse, he has struggled on the slower greens in the U.K., losing strokes putting in each of his last three Opens. 

There are courses where Bryson is certainly one of the best few players in the world. This isn’t one. His talent keeps him on the end of the list, but I personally think another missed cut feels more likely than a top 20 this week.

Honorable Mentions 

Ryan Fox 

Ryan Fox is one of the best players on Tour over the past two months, picking up two wins and three additional top 20s in elite fields at the Memorial, U.S. Open, and Travelers. He is a proven links player, winner of the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links and runner-up in 2023, and produced his best Open finish here in 2019, which included the lowest back-nine score (29) in Open Championship history. A bad week at the Scottish keeps him just outside my top 20. 

Ben Griffin

Ben Griffin has enjoyed a sensational couple of months, notching his first two PGA Tour victories, finishing solo second at the Memorial, and landing top 10s at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. He stumbled in his last start at the John Deere Classic, his tenth tournament in eleven weeks, and now arrives at Portrush well rested.

I’m optimistic about his long-term upside; he has shown a consistent ability to score with every club in the bag. This week, however, he sits just outside my top 20 simply because he has two missed cuts in just two Open Championship appearances. Still, his recent run of form and extremely well-rounded game make him someone to watch.

Adam Scott

After contending at the U.S. Open, Adam Scott continued that elite tee-to-green play into his next two starts. He has now gained strokes off the tee in six straight tournaments and ranks 10th in SG: Approach over the past month amongst this week’s Open field. His putter can be a let down, but on the firm U.K. surfaces he has actually gained strokes putting in each of his last six outings across the Open Championship and Scottish Open. He should be plenty comfortable with links golf making his 25th Open Championship start.

Sam Burns

The best putter on Tour this season shook off a slow start in early June and delivered four straight top 20s: T-12 at the Memorial, solo-second at the Canadian Open, T-17 at the Travelers, and T-7 at the U.S. Open, where he led into Sunday. His irons went cold at the Scottish Open and a T-31 at the Open last year tempers his upside, but his June surge and world-class putting make Sam Burns worth mentioning in this field.

‍Joaquin Niemann

Joaquin Niemann’s four LIV wins this season highlight his talent, but his major record keeps the focus elsewhere this week. The young Chilean has yet to contend on golf’s biggest stages. His T-8 at the PGA Championship was his first top-10 finish, but it came courtesy of a 65 on Sunday when he was already well out of contention. He then missed the cut at the U.S. Open and failed to crack the top 20 in either of his two most recent LIV starts.

The biggest concern is his Open Championship record. In five starts he has missed the cut twice and his best finish is T-53. The LIV Golf star still has more to prove before we label him a serious Claret Jug threat.