2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Preview

Depending on who you talk to, this week’s 2025 PGA Championship is either the most anticipated major championship of our lifetime or searching for footing in the aftermath of the tidal wave that was the 2025 Masters. It is undeniable that the championship arrives with almost every star in the game playing well, or even winning, within the last month – Rory McIlroy in Augusta, Justin Thomas in Hilton Head, Scottie Scheffler in Dallas, Bryson DeChambeau in Korea, and the great Ryan Fox in Myrtle Beach. It remains one of the very rare weeks when the seldom-seen LIV Golf stars commingle with their former PGA Tour colleagues. So anticipation should be high!

But it is an event that feels almost more PGA Tour signature-adjacent than major-adjacent, taking place at an annual Tour stop almost to the week when we get it every year. This year it’s soggy, at least at the start, and will feature Tour-friendly overseeded rough conditions for a major that continues to face questions about “identity.” There’s also the fact that it simply cannot be any better than what we just got at Augusta. But the path down from the mountaintop can be full of adventure and excitement, too.  

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So what I think – it’s probably a major that does not require a lot of preamble beforehand but will be an undeniably excellent show once the balls are in the air. The best are at their best and the stakes are higher because what goes on the Wikipedia page is not a Truist Championship win. Let’s dive into some of the key figures and storylines.

The Big Three

The Big Three is a grouping device in the modern age that almost never ends well and neglects the depth of talent. But this one includes the best player in the world this year (Rory McIlroy), the world No.1 and best player in the world the last few years (Scottie Scheffler), and arguably the best major championship performer of the last 12 months (Bryson DeChambeau). As with Augusta, Rory and Scottie are the two clear favorites by the odds, Bryson follows, and then it’s a drop to a handful of similarly listed great talents.

The analysis on Rory is quite simple. He is playing the best of anyone in the world going to a golf course where he’s succeeded more than anywhere in the world. That’s it. There are reams of supporting data and evidence for why. Distance off the tee matters greatly here and Rory has used it to overpower several iterations of this course for multiple wins and constant top 10s. A right-to-left draw, increasingly rare, can be a favored shot shape. “I think his shot shape, this golf course fits a high draw really, really well,” said Justin Thomas on Tuesday. “There's a lot of tee shots, whether it's holding fairways or fitting doglegs, taking bunkers out of play, whatever it is.”

Another guy who can launch a deep draw? Bryson, who has been in contention at four of the last five majors, every event he’s played for the last two months, and is perfectly suited again for this PGA. A continuation of the Bryson vs. Rory major tussles seems almost expected this week and would further build momentum for pro golf in the post-Tiger Woods era. Even if you doubt his sincerity, Bryson has become amusingly charming over the last couple of years and is a credit to the pro golf entertainment product. Both he and Rory will have their vocal fan bases bouncing around Quail. It’s a continued dynamic that is a massive credit for these majors and majors only.

Scheffler may not hit it as far as Bryson or Rory, and he has little course history here, choosing to play the Dallas-area events that often come in May around Quail. But he is just as suited for this pass-fail test as we’ve seen over and over again on Tour at stops like Bay Hill, Muirfield Village, and more – hitting his targets from tee-to-green and playing away from trouble on the tougher opening and closing stretches.

Given the test and their form, it seems more likely that all three of these players are in contention at the wire on Sunday than none of them, which would be a nice way to follow up the Masters.

The PGA Identity

It’s Blockie. No one is more synonymous with this championship this decade. It’s identity also might be the major where crazy and unexpected sh*t most often happens, like a player getting arrested. More seriously, it does not really have one. But does it really need one? It probably over-caters to player approval and sensitivities, but this identity crisis debate is just an annual subject of discussion to fill the practice days.

Banking on Depth

Perhaps its identity should just continue to be the strongest major championship field. The PGA manufactures it in some end-around ways, but they have done it again this year and it’s the strongest you will ever see. Jon Rahm makes his crossover from Legion XIII. The defending champ, Xander Schauffele, is somehow a secondary story, but another player with a strong history here. The 2017 champ here, the aforementioned JT, is a great option to capture a third PGA. Collin Morikawa is having another excellent season, but will have to overcome a distance deficiency. Few of the elite players are a subject of form concern. And they’re all here.

Hollowed Out

In a typical major week, the continued rain and washouts of almost two full days of practice rounds might be cause for anxiety. But not this week. Quail Hollow is as familiar as a major championship venue could get – way more than Pebble Beach, which is played annually on Tour in drastically different conditions than a U.S. Open.

So there’s the familiarity, but also the straightforward nature of the design, which has been chopped and screwed many times over the last two decades by Tom Fazio. Those changes were undertaken to simply serve various pro championships, but have left some pros disgruntled at a place they’d come to revere. Johnson Wagner, a member of the club familiar with all of the work, admitted, “We haven’t necessarily made the golf course better when we’ve made the changes” to serve its championship-hosting purpose.

Quail Hollow is an execution test. You’ll repeatedly hear the cliche that “you can’t fake it” around there. It’s been put to use a lot already this week, and it’s true. The May winners here rarely have a single outlier strokes gained deficiency in any part of the game. You have to hit it far, hit it well, and then often roll it at a top-tier level on these large greens to contend. What you don’t have to do is think much. We don’t have to lean on “architecture nerds,” or pedants, or haters here. Just the players themselves.

“I feel like a place like this, where it doesn't necessarily require a lot of thought or strategy off the tee, it's generally pulling out driver and just I need to hit this as far and straight as possible,” was the characterization from Justin Thomas. Hunter Mahan compared it to a Kardashian. Scottie Scheffler, golf’s ultimate plotter, said, “There's not really a bunch of strategy stuff you can do,” and it’s just driver off every tee. When asked to name a hole that might require some thought, he could visualize it but not recall the precise hole number (it was 14). The first six holes will be a challenge. The middle is where you get your birdies at a couple of par 5s and drivable par 4s. Then you hang on again over the finishing three.

The most recent round of changes should keep complaints relatively low compared to the more radical and hasty efforts for the August 2017 PGA. The greens will be firm, as they’re still newish – Wagner told us on the Fried Egg Podcast, and reviews corroborate that even with the deluge. The rye overseed is extremely rare for a major, but it will provide a more predictable play if you hit in the rough. This is a big change from the pure Bermuda of the 2017 PGA, but in line with the trend we’ve seen all spring on the PGA Tour from Florida to Texas. That’s not necessarily a compliment, and another strike for it feeling less major-ish and more Tour-ish.

It won’t be easy. You’ll have to hit more long irons than usual. It will require execution. It will reward predominant skills – Bryson called it “a bomber’s paradise.” It’s a beach read of major championship golf courses. It does its job. You have to read the words and get through the pages. It might not make you think as much, or move you greatly in one way or another, but it serves its precise purpose in an often uncomplicated and uncontroversial fashion.

Slam Season

Jordan Spieth has a better chance of completing the career slam this week than his beloved Dallas Mavericks did winning the NBA Draft Lottery. And, well, we’re now inundated with edits of Cooper Flagg in a Mavs jersey.

Spieth’s chance is not significantly greater than those wild longshot Mavs percentages, though he’s certainly more deserving of the good fortune that ping-ponged Nico Harrison’s way. The soft, 7,600-yard-long course plays into others’ hands, many of whom have also just been better golfers in recent years, regardless of venue or championship. But Spieth has improved this year following wrist surgery, particularly with approach play, and is coming off a strong showing at the Byron Nelson. He currently sits inside the top 20 in strokes gained total on the PGA Tour. Improved. But not good enough to be considered a prime contender this week.

We have so much data on this golf course from PGA Tour events, and the biggest hitters start the week with a decided advantage over Spieth. That said, for a place that seemingly tries to fashion itself after Augusta National, the sloping, larger greens can reward a hot putter. And that’s most likely Spieth’s lottery ball chance at victory. Stay in it tee to green and get hot with the putter.

With Rory McIlroy, the Grand Slam, or any major win, felt so tantalizingly close. That’s what made it such a tense and enthralling story to track each year. Spieth’s pursuit of the slam will remain a significant subject every year he comes to the PGA. But given the championship’s traits, this venue, and Spieth’s play over the years, that has tempered. It feels like more of a hope and a wish than the Rory assessments. But crazier hopes have come to fruition for Dallas fans already this week.

‍This piece originally appeared in the Fried Egg Golf newsletter. Subscribe for free and receive golf news and insight every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.