What to Watch For at the Tour Championship

A big topic at this week’s Tour Championship will be the U.S. Ryder Cup team’s captain’s picks, which are coming next Tuesday. So my “What to Watch For” this week is any discussion that refers to players’ rankings in Team USA’s points system. Beware of such talk.

The U.S. team’s points system is flawed. For those unfamiliar with how it works, here are the details:

For tournaments in 2022:

• One point awarded per $1,000 earned at the major championships
• One point awarded per $2,000 earned at the Players Championship, WGC-Dell Technologies Championship, and WGC-HSBC Championship

For tournaments in 2023:

• One point awarded per $1,000 earned at regular PGA Tour events January 1-August 20 (BMW Championship)
• Two points awarded per $1,000 earned for winner of each major championship
• One and a half points awarded per $1,000 earned for non-winners at each major championship

Aligning points allocations with purses is directionally correct but imprecise. For winning the Travelers Championship, a designated event, Keegan Bradley earned 3,600 points. For winning the Wyndham Championship, Lucas Glover received 1,368. I wouldn’t argue that these two wins should be treated equally, but Keegan’s victory earning more than double Glover’s is not an accurate reflection of performance.

If Team USA wants to have a simple, if imprecise, points system to determine who automatically qualifies, I don’t have an issue with the imprecision. From a fan and player perspective, simplicity and interpretability is good. But outside of determining the auto qualifiers, the points list should not be brought up as a reason for putting particular players on the team.

Zach Johnson’s goal should be to pick the players who give Team USA the best chance of winning. The points list does not help with that. Consider that Will Zalatoris, who has been injured and has not played golf since the Dell Match Play in March, has roughly the same point total as Russell Henley, who has finished in the top 20 in nine of 12 starts since the Match Play. I don’t think anyone would argue that Zalatoris gives you a better chance of winning in Rome than Henley does.

So from now until captain’s selections next Tuesday, enjoy the Ryder Cup debates—they’re fun!—but don’t let an imprecise points system cloud your judgment about who should be on the U.S. team. Use other kinds of data. And when someone refers to a player’s standing within the points system, look closely at how that player achieved his ranking. Perhaps he won one big tournament and has been irrelevant most other weeks…

To whom do you think Joseph might be referring? Put your guesses in the comments below.