Best Bets for the 2023 PGA Championship

We have already covered some favorites and longshots so now we’ll take a look at a few Best Bets all paying out at plus money odds:

Make the Cut Parlay: Adam Scott and Tommy Fleetwood +116 (FanDuel)

Year in and year out there seems to be extra value in the made-cut market for this event because the cut is top 70 and ties as opposed to 65 and ties. Scott has only missed the cut five times dating back to 2020 (62 events). He comes into this event in great form making every cut this year, including top-eight finishes in his last two events at Wells Fargo and Byron Nelson. We have a similar story for Fleetwood. He has only missed nine cuts since 2019 (110 events). Fleetwood has only missed one cut in 2023 and comes into this event off top-15 finishes in his last two starts.

Make the Cut Parlay: Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, and Xander Schauffele +105 (FanDuel)

Oak Hill is going to favor elite ballstrikers and these five players are as good as it gets in that regard. The only missed cut among all five of these players in 2023 was Cantlay at the WM Phoenix Open. If we look at historical results at majors, we have a very high rate of cuts made for all five of these players (Cantlay 17 of last 21, Finau 22 of last 27, Schauffele 17 of last 19, Scheffler 10 of last 11, Rahm 14 of last 14). With a cut at 70 and ties and all these players being in good form and with a great course fit, these odds seem low. I would expect a number closer to -170.

Top Senior: Steven Alker +400 (DraftKings)

There are five seniors in the field this week: Steven Alker, Phil Mickelson, Padraig Harrington, Y.E. Yang, and Shaun Micheel. Alker is top five in overall driving and greens in regulation on the Champions Tour since the beginning of 2022. That elite ballstriking sets a nice floor for his results this week as he should linger around the cut line.

Mickelson is being overvalued in this market based on his recent form and Masters performance. Mickelson’s errant driving could be a problem this week and he is prone to blowups and finishing well outside the cut line.

Harrington, at first glance, would seem to be a great fit this week with his elite distance off the tee. But a closer look reveals that Harrington is dealing with numerous injuries, including issues with his ribs and knees. That leaves us Yang and Micheel, and I would be utterly surprised with a made cut by either this week. So +400 on Alker seems to have value as I would have him rated equally to Mickelson and Harrington. So we are getting +400 on a player who should be +190.

*All odds above as of time of writing Monday morning

More Paulie and betting on the PGA:

• 5 Longshots We Love
• Paulie’s Picks and DFS Plays for Oak Hill