Breaking Down the Field for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont

Oakmont Country Club already has a reputation for being one of the most difficult golf courses in the world. With the USGA seemingly giddy about making it as tough as possible this week for the 2025 U.S. Open, it's only going to get more challenging. The course's natural topography – from its steep slopes, undulating fairways, thick rough, and penal bunkers – presents a unique challenge. On top of that, the greens could push close to 15 on the Stimpmeter, which will be like putting in a bathtub.

At any U.S. Open, we have to talk about distance vs. accuracy. Bryson DeChambeau’s victories in 2020 at Winged Foot and 2024 at Pinehurst No. 2 add to a simplistic idea that the championship is a contest to see who can bomb it the longest. Dustin Johnson’s win at Oakmont in 2016, where he led the field in driving distance, is often cited as proof of that narrative, but he was also top 20 in fairways hit that week. Oakmont’s challenge is much more than distance. Jim Furyk finished T-2 in 2016, averaging around 275 yards off the tee.

At 7,372 yards, Oakmont is long for a Par 70, but much of that distance comes from two extremely long par 5s and four par 3s that average 226 yards. This isn’t a course anyone is simply going to overpower. While distance helps, the key to Oakmont is more about playing from the right spots and consistently executing golf shots because, as much as any course in the world, Oakmont will absolutely punish misses. You can’t fake your way around the course, as it will test every club in the bag. You likely won’t see anyone at the top of the leaderboard who isn’t capable of gaining strokes in all four major categories.

For perspective, Angel Cabrera won there in 2007 at 5 over, showing just how demanding Oakmont can be. Something we can be very confident in – Oakmont will produce a great winner. Of the nine champions at Oakmont, eight have won at least two majors. Let's take a look at who has a chance.

* indicates an elevated field (signature event or major)

Scottie Scheffler

2025 PGA Tour Results: 1* - 4 - 1* - 1* - 8* - 4* - 2 - 20* - 11* - 3* - 25 - 9*

U.S. Open Results: 41 - 3 - 2 - 7 - MC - 27 - MC

Scottie Scheffler’s last two wins  at the Memorial and PGA Championship Championship have been particularly impressive. Not just because he beat elite fields by four-plus strokes, but because he is doing it without his best stuff. Watch him over four rounds and you’ll see plenty of visible frustration—missed fairways, flared irons, short missed putts. But it never snowballs. No matter how it looks, he never drifts more than a few shots off the lead.

That’s what makes him different. He manages a golf course and mitigates damage better than anyone in the world. Even when he’s off, he keeps himself in position until something clicks, like it did on the back nine Saturday at Quail Hollow.

At the Memorial (70-70-68-70), he didn’t need a heater. He simply played solid golf while the rest of the field made bogeys. He led the field in pars, and played  and played steady, relentless, mistake-free golf on a course set up to punish errors. 

The Nobody is better suited for this week’s test than Scheffler, and the stats back it up. Scottie’s current PGA Tour rankings:

• SG: Off-the-Tee: T-1
• SG: Approach: 1 (by a wide margin)
• Scrambling: 1
• Bogey Avoidance: 1

Scottie is undoubtedly the most complete player in professional golf. If you had to build the perfect U.S. Open golfer in a lab, he’d probably look a lot like this current version of Scottie Scheffler. He is clearly the one to beat.

Rory McIlroy

2025 PGA Tour Results: MC - 47* - 7*  - 12 - 1* -  5 - 1* - 15* - 17* - 1*

U.S. Open Results: 2 - 2 - 5 - 7 - 8 - 9 - MC - MC - MC - 9 - 23 - 41 - MC - 1 - MC - 10

I previously thought the Masters win would free Rory McIlroy up and allow him to play better golf, but the flip side is that he has achieved his lifelong dream, and now he might lose the edge needed to keep grinding at the highest level. Right now, it certainly feels more like the latter. He even admitted as much prior to the RBC Canadian Open, saying, "Grinding on the range for three or four hours every day is maybe a little tougher than it used to be. You have this event in your life that you’ve worked toward, and it happens… Sometimes it’s hard to find the motivation to get back on the horse and go again."

And then he finished 149th at the Canadian Open.

No matter how bad it has looked,We probably can’t completely write off McIlroy. He is better equipped to handle Oakmont’s difficulty than before and has been trying to emulate Scottie’s measured approach to course management, which helped him win at Pebble Beach and TPC Sawgrass earlier this season. And we’re still not that far removed from the incredible all-around golf he displayed at Augusta National.

Rory has been on an incredible six-year run at the U.S. Open, and his talent and season-long form deserve respect, but he certainly feels a tier or two below Scottie right now. 

Bryson DeChambeau

2025 LIV Golf Results: 4 - 2* - 1 - 2 - 5* - 5 - 10 - 20 - 18 - 6

U.S. Open Results: 1 - 20 - 56 - 26 - 1 - 35 - 25 - MC - 15 - MC

I made the mistake of discounting Bryson’s chances at Augusta, so I’m hesitant to do it again, but here we are. He has won two of the last five U.S. Opens, and his recent major record is outstanding, but I don’t think he’s a great fit for Oakmont. Much of his U.S. Open success, particularly in 2020, came from a bomb-and-gauge approach. That won’t work here. The penalties for misses will be severe, and Oakmont demands a more calibrated, precise approach off the tee. His driver will still be a weapon, but it is also not my primary concern. Oakmont was designed in the style of traditional British links courses, and Bryson has historically struggled on those types of layouts. 

Bryson has been playing great golf lately, and his unique ability to hit it long and straight off the tee should keep him in the mix. I just don’t see him as one of the favorites on this setup, which demands more creativity, precision, and feel than his robotic approach to golf allows.

Jon Rahm 

2025 LIV Golf Results: 8 - 8* - 7 - 4 - 14* - 9 - 5 - 6 - 6 - 2

U.S. Open Results: 10 - 12 - 1 - 23 - 3 - MC - MC - 23 

I spent a lot of time prior to the PGA trying to quantify Jon Rahm’s top-10 finish streak on LIV Golf. This week I’m throwing that away and focusing on his performances in the majors this year–, which tells me he is ready to compete at the U.S. Open. Jon finished T-8 at the PGA Championship and T-14 at the Masters, but those results don’t fully reflect his level of play. At the PGA, he was tied with Scheffler during the final round, but fell down the leaderboard with a rough final three holes. His T-14 at the Masters is much more impressive when you consider he had to overcome five bogeys in his first 11 holes on Thursday.. 

He remains one of the most complete players of his generation. He’s elite in every aspect of the game and built for tough setups. We saw glimpses of that form at both majors this season, and he will be comfortable with some of Oakmont’s elements. With many of the top PGA Tour players struggling to match Scottie’s level, Rahm might be the one to keep pace this week.

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Ludvig Aberg

2025 PGA Tour Results: 13 - 16* - MC* - 60* - 54* - 7 - MC - MC - 22* - 1* - 42 - 5

U.S. Open Results: 12

It’s been a strange season for Ludvig Aberg. He won a signature event at Torrey Pines and was one of the players most likely to challenge Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose on Sunday at Augusta before a triple bogey on No. 18 derailed his chances. However, in five starts before and after the Masters, Ludvig missed three cuts and finished outside the top 50 in two no-cut events.

The biggest issue was his iron play, where he’s 117th in greens in regulation and 119th in SG: Approach. There are signs of life though, as he gained a respectable 1.8 strokes on approach at the Memorial and another 3.3 last week in Canada. 

Most people agree that Ludvig is a future U.S. Open champion in the making. He led last year’s championship through 36 holes and has shown he can compete at the highest level. With his ability off the tee and the rest of his game trending upward, I expect him to be a real contender once again. 

Shane Lowry 

2025 PGA Tour Results:  13 - 23* - MC* - 2* - 12 - 18* - 42* - 8 - 20* - 7* - 11 - 39 - 2* - MC 

U.S. Open Results: 19 - 20 - MC - 65 - 43 - 28 - MC - 46 - 2 - 9 - MC - MC

In 2016 at Oakmont, Shane Lowry held a four-stroke lead going into the final round. He faltered on Sunday and ultimately finished T-2, but that career-best U.S. Open result speaks to his fit at Oakmont. As one of the best links golfers in the world, it also affirms the idea that a links-style skillset can thrive at Oakmont.

Lowry is also a much better golfer now than he was in 2016. Though he hasn’t secured a win this season, he is playing some of the best golf of his career, finishing as the runner-up in two signature events and securing four top-12 finishes. He has the hands to scramble from anywhere and is currently one of the best iron players on Tour, ranking third in SG: Approach. While putting can be a weakness, he has positive putting splits on fast Poa greens, which we will see this week.

Shane Lowry may not be the first name that comes to mind when you think of a U.S. Open contender, but he is a fantastic fit for Oakmont and demonstrated his elite form once again last weekend in Toronto. I’m expecting Shane to contend at Oakmont again. 

Xander Schauffele 

2025 PGA Tour Results:  25* - 28* - 11*  - 18* - 8* - 12 - 72*- 40* - 30

U.S. Open Results: 7 - 10 - 14 - 7 - 5 - 3 - 6 -5

Xander Schauffele will win a U.S. Open someday. In eight career starts, he has finished outside the top-10 only once, a T-14 in 2022. His all-around game thrives on difficult courses, which helped him secure two major wins in 2024.

However, that all-around form has been absent so far in 2025. After missing the first two months of the season due to a rib injury, Xander has been leaking strokes in different areas each week. I’ve been trying to find the silver lining, but that’s been a fool’s errand. For instance, at Quail Hollow he was excellent off the tee, but struggled with his irons. At the Memorial, it was the opposite.

There are two ways to look at this. The optimistic view is that the pieces have been there, and if everything clicks this week, he could be in the mix. I’ve fallen for that narrative too many times with Xander this season, and I personally doubt it will all come together at a place like Oakmont, where the difficulty will be set to the extreme.

Justin Thomas 

2025 PGA Tour Results:  31* - MC* - 2* - 1* - 36* - 2 - 33* - 36* - 9* - 6 - 48 - 2 - 26

U.S. Open Results: MC - MC - 37 - 19 - 8 - MC - 25 - 9 - 32 - MC

It’s been a resurgent season for Justin Thomas, breaking a three-year winless drought and finishing runner-up three times. However, Oakmont could pose a tough challenge. While Thomas has been putting as well as he has in years, his struggles off the tee could be a significant issue. He’s hitting just 55% of fairways this season (117th on Tour), and his two most recent starts at Muirfield and Quail Hollow have seen him post his worst driving accuracy numbers of the year. JT has also been prone to blow-up rounds, which will be tough to overcome at Oakmont, where penalties for wayward drives are particularly harsh. Add in a less-than-stellar U.S. Open track record, and it is hard to feel confident.

Justin Rose

2025 PGA Tour Results: MC - 44* - MC* - 42* - 2* - 47 - MC* - 8* - MC* - 3* - MC

U.S. Open Results: MC - MC - 37 - MC - MC - 3 - 10 - MC - MC - 27 - 12 - 1- 21 - MC - MC - MC - 10 - MC - 5

Justin Rose deserves mention here, having finished 2nd in two of the last three majors. It is hard to be overly optmistic though given his recent U.S. Open record and shaky week-to-week performance on the PGA Tour. Rose has missed the cut in four of the last five U.S. Opens and hasn’t displayed any competitive form since the playoff loss at the Masters.

Once one of the best ball-strikers in the game, the veteran Englishman now seems to have to rely more on course knowledge and strategy. His best recent finishes are all at classic courses where his experience pays off–T-2 at Royal Troon last year, T-3 at Pebble Beach in February, and 2nd this year at Augusta. He is one of the few players to have played Oakmont twice (MC in 2016, T-10 in 2007), so perhaps his familiarity with the course can help him, but I question whether he still has the ball-striking consistency these days to keep up with the relentless difficulty of Oakmont.

Viktor Hovland 

2025 PGA Tour Results:  25* - 28* - 54* - 13* - 21* - 1* - MC - MC - MC - 22 - 36

U.S. Open Results: MC - 19 - MC - 13 - 12

Viktor Hovland’s short game has always been his weak link, and that has not changed – he’s currently outside the top 150 in SG: Around-the-Green. In past seasons, he could get away with it thanks to elite ball-striking, but that safety net is now far less secure. While the irons have been steady, his driver has become a real liability. A perennial top-10 performer off the tee, he is now outside the top 80 and has lost strokes with the driver in five of his last eight starts. At Oakmont, missed fairways turn into scrambling, and scrambling tends to turn into bogeys for Hovland. Hard to trust. 

Hideki Matsuyama

2025 PGA Tour Results:  38 - 36 - MC - 17* - 21* - MC - MC - 22 - 13 - 25 - 48 - 32 - 16 - 1

U.S. Open Results: 6 - 32 - 4 - 26 - 17 - 21 - 16 - 2 - MC - 18 - 35 - 10 

This preview is getting a little grim, and unfortunately it is not turning around here. Hideki has been a steady top-25 presence at the U.S. Open, but that consistency feels at odds with his current ball-striking form. Driving accuracy has been a problem all season, and it has only gotten worse since Augusta, losing strokes off the tee in three of his last four starts. More concerning, though, is the state of his irons. This is statistically the worst approach season of his career, and it hit a new low at Muirfield Village, where he lost 5.8 strokes on approach. Not the buildup you want heading into Oakmont.

Brooks Koepka 

2025 LIV Golf Results:  33 - MC* - 17 - 30 - MC* - 18 - 2 - 35 - 7 - 33

U.S. Open Results: 26 - 17 - 55 - 4 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 13 - 18 - 4 - MC 

The odds say I should still be talking about Brooks, but it does not feel like the best use of my time. He has missed the cut at both majors this season and hasn’t posted a top 25 in his last eight major starts. His short game was a disaster at Augusta National and Quail Hollow, and it has been just as shaky across his four LIV starts over the past two months, where he’s been well out of contention. Brooks once said, "I just practice before the majors. Regular tournaments I don't practice. If you see me on TV, that's when I play golf."  Well, we rarely see him on TV these days, and when we do, it looks more and more like he rarely plays golf. 

Tommy Fleetwood

2025 PGA Tour Results: 16* - 4 - 41* -  4* - 7* - 21* - 62 - 16 - 14* - 11* - 5* - 22 

U.S. Open Results: 16 - 5 - MC - 50 - MC - 65 - 2 - 4 - 27 

This year has been more of the same from Tommy Fleetwood, consistently finishing near the top of leaderboards without truly threatening to win.

What keeps Tommy in the mix week in and week out is his complete game. He’s gained strokes across the board in three of his last five starts, earning three top-seven finishes. His all-around skill set has proven especially effective on difficult courses, helping him rack up seven top-five finishes in majors.

Looking ahead to Oakmont, all signs point to another solid week. He consistently hits a high percentage of fairways. At both the Masters and PGA Championship, he ranked top-three in SG: Around the Green, gaining over six strokes at each. While his putting let him down at those majors, he has made strides with his putter since switching to a mallet after the Masters, gaining strokes in four of his last five starts. Capping things off, he just posted a great iron performance (+4.4 SG: Approach) at Muirfield Village, a demanding second-shot course. Oakmont should fit Fleetwood’s eye, and he seems a safe bet to contend at another major.

Joaquin Niemann

2025 LIV Golf Results:  1 - 8* - 20 - 1 - 29* - 33 - 1 - 12 - 1 - 33

U.S. Open Results: 32 - 47 - 31 - 23 - MC

Niemann somewhat quieted some of the noise about his major record with his first major top-10 finish at the PGA Championship. Aside from that mixed major history, there’s plenty to like about his game and his fit for major golf courses. He excels tee-to-green and has proven to be a capable putter on LIV. His low ball flight and ball-striking creativity make him a good fit for a course like Oakmont, which occasionally asks players to hit links-style shots.

However, I’m still caught up on his major record. He backdoored his top-10 finish at the PGA with a final-round 68, but Niemann was never within five shots of the lead. Oakmont will offer a much tougher and less familiar challenge than Quail Hollow, and despite yet another LIV win this week in Virginia, until I see him actually competing for a major title on this stage, I remain cautious about his U.S. Open.

Sepp Straka

2025 PGA Tour Results: 3* - MC* - 1* - 12 - 13* - MC* - 28 - 14 - 5* - 11 - MC - 15 - 7* - 1 - 30 - 15

U.S. Open Results: 56 - MC - MC - 28

Sepp Straka continues to prove himself as one of the top players on the PGA Tour this year. After winning the American Express in January, he followed it up with a signature event win at the Truist Championship last month and has climbed to eighth in the OWGR. 

Statistically, he is a good fit for Oakmont. He ranks ninth in driving accuracy, second in approach, excels with long irons, and was the best putter on Tour in May. Though he struggles around the greens, his birdie-making ability can make up for those scrambling-induced bogeys. The missed cuts at both majors this season are a concern, but in 2023 he did finishT-2 at the Open Championship and T-7 at the PGA Championship. Perhaps the biggest indicator of his potential at Oakmont is his solo-third finish at a very difficult Muirfield Village two weeks ago, which played as the hardest course on the PGA Tour this season. His current form is simply too good to stay irrelevant in majors this season. 

Ben Griffin

2025 PGA Tour Results: 2* - 1 - 8* - 46 - MC - 1 - 40 - 18 - MC - MC* - 45* - 4 - 4 - 44 - 36 - 69 - MC - 7 - 45 

U.S. Open Results: N/A

Ben Griffin may be the most intriguing name in the 2025 U.S. Open field. His recent form has been exceptional—a team win at the Zurich Classic, a T-8 at the PGA Championship, a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and a runner-up finish at the Memorial on a very demanding course. This doesn’t feel like a fluke. Some unsung players may string together solid weeks due to momentary hot irons or putting. That hasn’t been the case for Griffin who has maintained this form with a complete game, gaining multiple in all four major categories for three consecutive weeks, but this isn’t the first time he’s shown such consistency. Earlier this season, he gained strokes across the board and posted back-to-back T-4 finishes in Mexico and at the Cognizant.

He has no weaknesses at the moment, which bodes well for major championship golf. The only real knock is that this will be his first U.S. Open, but given his top-10 finish at the PGA Championship and his performance at Memorial, it is evident to me that he is capable of competing on big stages at difficult golf courses.

‍Patrick Cantlay

2025 PGA Tour Results: 12* - MC - 4* - 13* - 36* - 33 - 12* - 31* - 5* - 33* - 5 - 15

U.S. Open Results: 3 - 14 - 14- 15 - 43 - 21 - 45 - 41 -21

I gave Patrick Cantlay a glowing review going into PGA Championship, and he promptly missed the cut by five strokes. Sorry, but I’m probably back in again this week, though with significantly less enthusiasm. Set aside the mess at Quail Hollow, and he still looks as capable as any of the non-Scottie American Ryder Cuppers to contend in a major. He has been quietly solid at recent U.S. Opens, including a solo third last year at Pinehurst No. 2, finishing just two shots behind Bryson DeChambeau.

His ball-striking has been dependable all season. He is gaining both distance and accuracy off the tee and currently sits inside the top 10 in SG: Approach. Oddly, his chipping has been a liability since early April and has kept him from better finishes, but I’m willing to overlook that to a degree given his long-term scrambling numbers. He probably is not winning this week, but the ball-striking profile and U.S. Open résumé suggest he can at least linger on the first page of the leaderboard.

Jordan Spieth 

2025 PGA Tour Golf Results: 7* - 36 - MC* -  34* - 4 - 18* - 14* - 12 - 28 - 59* - 9 - MC* - 4 - 69*

U.S. Open Results: 41 - MC - 37 - 19 - MC - 65 - MC - 35 - 37 - 1 - 17 - MC - 21

Jordan Spieth might not be the first name you think of for the U.S. Open, but his game is trending for this kind of test.. It’s hard to believe, given the frequency with which we see him in the forest, but his biggest asset right now is the driver. Spieth is in the top 25 off the tee this season and consistently gains strokes with both driving distance and accuracy. While his iron play has been all over the map this year, he’s had three massive spike weeks this season (+6.6, +7.6, +6.9 SG: Approach) and is currently in the midst of a rare, consistent stretch where he’s gained (albeit minimally) on approach in three straight weeks.

Most encouragingly, Spieth had a T-7 finish last week at the extremely challenging Muirfield Village, where he gained in all four categories. He’s trending well enough to do well, and if he can catch one of those hot iron weeks, he has the potential to be a factor on Sunday.

Tyrrell Hatton

2025 LIV Golf Results: 15 -  60* - 13 - 5 - 14* - 33 - 19 - 20 - 23 - 6

U.S. Open Results: 26 - 27 - 56 - MC - MC - 21 - 6 - MC 

Tyrrell Hatton’s LIV season hasn’t been inspiring, but he showed he still has plenty of class with two competitive wins on the DP World Tour last winter. He was competitive at the Masters but only finished T-14 after losing over three strokes putting. While this isn’t a true links test, Oakmont’s links-inspired design should fit the eye of the three-time Alfred Dunhill Links champion. He hits fairways consistently and can gain multiple strokes across all four major categories. His current form is hard to gauge, but at his best, this is one of the better U.S. Open layouts for his game. 

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Russell Henley 

2025 PGA Tour Results: 46* - 8* - MC* - 30 - 1* - 6 - 39* - 5* - 10 - 30 

U.S. Open Results: 7 - 14 - MC - 13 - 25 - 27 - MC - 60 - MC - 42 - 16

Another player who consistently contends by doing everything well, Russell Henley has been a steady performer throughout 2025. The missed cuts at the Masters and PGA Championship were a surprise, but I don’t see them as a major knock on his ability. Over the last two years, he’s posted three top-seven finishes in majors and showed he can win against elite competition this season at the Arnold Palmer Invitatiional. He also bounced back from two bad weeks with a T-5 finish and an elite iron display at Muirfield Village a week ago. While he may lack the raw firepower of some of the favorites, Henley’s elite precision off the tee and well-rounded game make him an outside contender this week. 

Keegan Bradley

2025 PGA Tour Results: 7* - 8* - 30 - 18 - MC* - 47 - 20* - 5* - 34 - 65* - 15 - 6 - 15

U.S. Open Results: 32 – MC - 7 - MC - MC - MC - 60 - MC - 27 - 4 - MC - 68 

Keegan Bradley has been steady all season, ranking fourth on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, and is hitting his best form heading into Oakmont. After a T-8 at Quail Hollow, he followed up with a T-7 finish at the Memorial. This is an encouraging sign for what will likely be the toughest test of the season. While his putting still ranks in the bottom half and limits his upside, he showed some life at Memorial (+2.8 SG: Putting). With this kind of form, Captain Keegan is certainly playing well enough to make noise at Oakmont and be a Ryder Cup contender.

Corey Conners 

2025 PGA Tour Results: 27 - 25* - 19* - 11* - 49* - 8* - 18 - 8 - 6* - 3* - 24* - 74 - 65 - MC - 5 

U.S. Open Results: 9 - MC - MC - MC - MC - MC

Corey Conners has an ugly U.S. Open track record, but his T-9 finish at Pinehurst No. 2 a year ago shows he’s capable of competing in a major. In fact, he's finished in the top 25 in each of his last four major starts. A few months ago, Conners looked like someone who could contend at Oakmont. He’s one of the better fairway finders and most consistent ball-strikers on Tour, and had a hot stretch early in the spring where his short game was also clicking. That run had him in contention for three consecutive weeks during the Florida Swing and in the hunt on Sunday at the Masters.

The timing for Oakmont isn’t ideal. The Canadian enters this major playing less inspiring golf, having posted a terrible ball-striking week at Muirfield Village (-4.6 SG: Approach) and only managed a T-27 at the RBC Canadian Open with his short game faltering once again. He’s still likely to hit as many fairways as anyone in the field, which should help him make the cut, but the rest of his game doesn’t seem to be in a place to offer much more.

Harris English

2025 PGA Tour Results: 12* - 53 - 2* - 11* - 66* - 12* - 18 - 30* - MC* - 24* - 73* -1 - 43 - MC

U.S. Open Results: 41 - 8 - 61 - 3 - 4 - 58 - 46 - 37 - 48

Far from reliable week to week, but the laidback Georgia Bulldog has an affinity for difficult golf courses. He won at Torrey Pines in January, finished T-12 at the Masters, and took T-2 at the PGA Championship – his best major finish yet. That result was not a fluke; he's contended in majors before, with a strong U.S. Open record. English has made the cut in all nine of his U.S. Open appearances, with three top-10s in the past five years, including solo third and fourth place finishes in 2020 and 2021, where he stayed in the hunt late into Sunday.

While he’s been an above-average iron player all year, he transformed into a top-five approach player at Augusta National and Quail Hollow. His ability to elevate his game on the biggest stage is clear, and with the Ryder Cup coming to Bethpage this fall, English should be motivated to further prove he excels on tough tracks.

Maverick McNealy

2025 PGA Tour Results: 5* - MC - 33 - 60 - 3* - 32 - 3* - 32 - MC* - MC* - 2* - 9* - 40 - 52 - 45 - 8

U.S. Open Results: MC - MC 

It has been an absolute boom or bust season for Maverick McNealy. He has six top 10s but hasn’t finished inside the top 30 in ten other starts. His major record is underwhelming (best finish T-23), but he has proven capable of contending in elite fields on tough golf courses several times this season. He was unlucky not to win the Genesis Invitational, a signature event at Torrey Pines in February, finished T-3 at the RBC Heritage in April, and most recently bounced back from a tough May with a T-5 finish at Muirfield Village, a course that shares similarities with major setups.

On his best weeks, McNealy hits a lot of fairways and gains strokes in every category—exactly the type of golf that could allow him to contend at a major. It’s hard to know when these good weeks are going to come, but his strong performances have come in bunches this season, so the T-5 at Muirfield Village is an encouraging sign heading into Oakmont.

Sam Burns

2025 PGA Tour Results: 2 - 12* - 19* - 30* - 5 - 13* - 46* - MC - MC - MC* - 48* - 24* - 49 - 22* - 29 - 8

U.S. Open Results: 9 - 32 - 27 - MC - 41 - MC

Sam Burns has lots of momentum entering Oakmont after the runner-up finish at the RBC Canadian Open. Sam has been the best putter on Tour by a good margin this season but forgot how to hit irons most of the year, losing strokes on approach for 10 straight tournaments. He gained 1.2 strokes on approach at the Memorial and continued an upward trajectory this week in Canada, gaining over five strokes on approach, his best of the year. Sam has been a good ball-striker over the last few seasons, so this trend feels sustainable. He putted well enough at the PGA Championship to finish T-19 despite losing multiple strokes on approach. He should be capable of more with the irons firing again. 

Taylor Pendrith

2025 PGA Tour Results: 27 - 12* - 5* - 65 - MC - 42 - 15 - MC* - 5* - 38 - MC* - MC* - 50* - 9* - 7 - 45 - 13

U.S. Open Results: 16 - MC - MC - 23

Pendrith’s elite driving ability sets him apart as one of the best off the tee, and his iron play has recently improved. He notched a surprising T-5 finish at Quail Hollow last month, displaying solid iron and wedge play that had been lacking earlier in the season. At the Memorial, Pendrith posted a career-best 7.3 strokes gained on approach, leading the field on a challenging second-shot course. If he can maintain that level of quality with his irons, combined with his already-reliable driving, he could emerge as one of the top ball-strikers in this field.

His short game has been a huge liability this year, though he’s gained strokes around the green in four straight weeks and shown flashes of the putting that ranked him 5th on Tour in SG: Putting a year ago.

With his ball-striking clicking and the short game trending in the right direction, Pendrith is a sleeper with legitimate upside, especially after his top-5 finish at the PGA Championship.

Cameron Young

2025 PGA Tour Results: 4 - 25* - 47* - 7* - 54* - MC - 18 - MC - 61* - MC* - MC - MC* - 12 - 72* - MC - 8 

U.S. Open Results: 67 - 32 - MC - MC - MC

With another solid week in Canada, it looks like Cameron Young is finally putting his slump behind him. A few years ago, he looked like he would be a consistent threat at Majors with T-3 and second-place finishes at the 2022 PGA Championship and Open Championship, respectively. He hasn’t finished inside the top 30 in his last five major starts and struggled through an ugly stretch of missed cuts this season. But now, after stringing together four solid weeks, including a T-7 finish at the Truist Championship and a strong showing in Canada, there’s reason for optimism.

His elite ability to hit it long and straight off the tee made him a major contender early in his career, and that appears to be returning. He gained 2.4 strokes off the tee at the PGA Championship, 3.5 at the Memorial, and over four strokes in Canada. Surprisingly, he’s also paired this with an improved putter. While he still needs to clean up his irons and wedges, his major pedigree and ability off the tee should keep him relevant at Oakmont this week.

Ryan Fox

2025 PGA Tour Results: 1 - 20* - 28* - 1 - 60 - MC - 59 - MC - 15 - 47 - 20* - MC - MC - 63

U.S. Open Results: 56  - 43 - MC - MC - MC - 41

Ryan Fox is in the midst of a fantastic stretch of golf. The Kiwi veteran earned his first PGA Tour win a month ago at the alternate-field Myrtle Beach Classic, then backed that up with respectable T-28 and T-20 finishes at the PGA Championship and Memorial before he just grabbed another win in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open. He has been gaining strokes in all four categories and has shown comfortability with major championship golf as one of only six  players to make the cut in all four majors in 2023 and 2024. 

There is probably a ceiling, but he has proven to be a reliable cut-maker in majors and enters this week in by far the best form of his career. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him in the mix on the weekend.

Aaron Rai

2025 PGA Tour Results: MC* - MC - 19* - 23* - 18 - 38 - 27 - MC - 14 - 11 - 4 - 37* - 40* - MC - 15

U.S. Open Results: 19 - MC

Since Jim Furyk was runner-up in each of the last two U.S. Opens at Oakmont, we have to mention Aaron Rai, the fairway king of the PGA Tour. Rai looks likely to finish the season as the leader in fairway percentage for the second consecutive year. The rest of his game (particuarly putting) likely won’t be good enough to seriously factor in a major, but since playing from the fairway proves to be key this week, he should have a real chance to better his career-best T-19 major finish.

Richard Bland

2025 LIV Results: 29 - 37* - 7 - 11- 47 - 14 - 30 - 5 - 40

U.S. Open Results: 43 - 50 - MC 

If I’m writing up Aaron Rai for his accuracy, it’s only fair to mention Richard Bland. The 52-year-old LIV and Champions Tour player still has enough game to compete on this stage. Currently 21st on the LIV points list, he earned a T-37 at the PGA Championship.

Most notably, Bland led the PGA Championship in driving accuracy by a wide margin, and that precision will be crucial at Oakmont. While his short game leaves a lot to be desired, he has been one of the better iron players on LIV, and finished fourth in SG: Approach at Quail Hollow. Consider Bland a low-tier pick for office pools this week.