Early Storylines to Watch at 2026 PGA Championship

Whenever a venue we haven’t seen in a while makes its way onto the major championship calendar, discourse around how the course will play tends to dominate the lead-up to the tournament. It is a fun dynamic: spirited debates about winning score, the skill sets required to win, and whether a golf course can still defend itself in the modern era. Aronimink Golf Club has been the main character so far this week, and I don’t anticipate that changing too much throughout the championship. 

On the eve of the 2026 PGA Championship, here are three things to watch as the tournament action approaches.

The Forecast

I’m not the first to bring this up, but the importance of weather cannot be overstated at this tournament. Weather is always a significant variable at major championships, but Aronimink is particularly sensitive to conditions, as its primary defense — the green complexes — will be heavily impacted by firmness levels.

Currently, there doesn’t appear to be quite as much rain in the forecast as expected earlier in the week, and certainly less than Philadelphia can receive in May. Close to 0.2 inches is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. How much precipitation the golf course receives in the hours preceding the first round is worth monitoring. 

Why does it matter? The golf course could play soft and receptive for the morning wave, creating an opportunity for players with early tee times to make a splash. However, the morning also looks fairly chilly, which is not only difficult to play in, but could also keep the greens from drying out too much ahead of the Thursday afternoon wave. Based on the current forecast, I don’t foresee a huge wave split in either direction, though that can change very quickly.

If you made me guess, I would predict a slight advantage for the Thursday morning/Friday afternoon wave, mainly because it should see the softest version of the golf course, plus Friday afternoon currently looks much easier than a cold, breezy Friday morning. That said, weather forecasts can change quickly, so keep an eye on conditions as play begins. 

Is Aronimink Bomber Friendly? 

The type of player Aronimink favors will be a hot topic throughout the week. It is not a brutally long golf course, but it lends itself to bashing driver repeatedly, as Rory McIlroy noted on Tuesday. Course length and driver usage are not the only variables that dictate the importance of driving distance, but there has been a divergence of opinion this week on the value of driving distance, and I suspect those two factors are responsible for much of that discrepancy. 

My overall take is that the golf course is very friendly to a long driver, even if he is inaccurate, because I do not expect wide misses to be penalized heavily. The softer the golf course plays, the more true this will be. A long driver can swing with freedom and get into a rhythm at Aronimink. The golf course will also reward a great short-iron player (I know, I’m not breaking any news here). It’s an interesting dynamic because many long drivers are often poor wedge players, partly because swing mechanics that generate power off the tee can conflict with sound wedge mechanics, and partly because longer players tend to have larger iron gappings, impacting distance control. 

When I think about players who are both long off the tee and proper wedge players, it would be impossible to overlook Scottie Scheffler. I’m not exactly highlighting a dark horse here, but part of Scheffler’s brilliance is his ability to manage competing skill sets and remain proficient throughout the bag. Though he hasn’t been as dominant with his irons in 2026 as he was over the previous couple of seasons, his most recent few starts have shown encouraging approach play. Scheffler is not a speed demon, but he regularly pushes 180-mph ball speed, an above-average clip. The firmer the golf course plays, the more I like Scheffler’s chances, especially since he can get some runout on lower-launching drives. 

Another player who comes to mind is Sam Burns, a high-speed player who struggles with long irons but is much more solid with his short irons. Burns has been in the mix on Sunday in two of the last three major championships. I also like the way Aronimink mutes his weakness. Burns is one of the best putters in the world, so if the short irons show up for him, I could see him in one of the last couple of groups headed into Sunday. 

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No. 11 

No. 13 — a short par 4 that can be set up as drivable — will likely receive plenty of broadcast attention, but I am more interested in watching golfers navigate No. 11. It’s a short, 425-yard par 4 that is straightforward off the tee, like just about every hole at Aronimink. The challenge lies in the green complex — more specifically, distance and spin control into the most severe green on the property. 

A shot that comes up short, or spins too much, can roll more than 50 yards back off the front of the green, leaving a difficult chip. It’s a good example of a hole where, in soft conditions, playing from the rough may not prove to be much of a disadvantage because it can actually assist with spin control, as Scheffler eloquently explained during his press conference. 

Expect to see some frustrated golfers, particularly when the pin is on the front-left section of the green. And if conditions are soft, there may not be much penalty for finding the rough off the tee.  

Due to the severity of the putting surface, Chief Competitions Officer Kerry Haigh mentioned that the green is being maintained at a slower speed than the rest of the Aronimink greens. That will be one subtle thing to watch during the tournament: do some players struggle with speed control on the No. 11 green if it is indeed running at a different speed from the rest of the course?