You’re Still Away

Over the past couple of weeks, the golf world has engaged in some healthy discourse about short par 4s. After participating in the conversation and reflecting on the anatomy of a good short 4, I’ve come to a few conclusions.

Caveat: my thoughts are exclusively with respect to testing elite professional golfers.

These are two key features of my favorite short par 4s:

1. There is extreme danger in at least one location around the green

2. The “extreme danger” is not a water hazard that, when found, results in dropping the ball on the putting surface or just off the green

Asymmetry is a powerful concept. PGA Tour player Andrew Putnam knows a thing or two about asymmetry. On a recent episode of the Fried Egg Podcast, Putnam articulated that players are rewarded more for executing a shot than they are penalized for failing to execute a shot.

Payouts on the PGA Tour are not linear. For example, the difference between finishing in seventh versus eighth was $50,000 at the Genesis Invitational. The difference between finishing eighth and ninth was $40,000. Overall, this is true of PGA Tour leaderboards. The structure rewards risk tolerance. You’re rewarded more for your success than you’re penalized for your failure. Therefore, players are incentivized to take on risky plays.

Now let’s think about asymmetrical risk on short par 4s.

Picture a hole like No. 17 at TPC Scottsdale.

The extreme danger is a water hazard left of the green. Some players find the water off the tee, as Sahith Theegala did in 2022. Theegala took his penalty drop next to the green, hit an average chip shot, and left himself 13 feet for par. Water hazards may look intimidating, but they also impose a ceiling on high scores. Players who hit tee shots or sloppy chip shots into the water on 17 at TPC Scottsdale experience a quick moment of frustration, but then they drop right next to the green. Boring!

My ideal short par 4 includes extreme danger without an upper bound on the score a player can make. Now, when standing over a tee shot or a delicate chip, players are faced with asymmetrical risk in the scary direction. Find a downslope in a bunker on the 10th hole at Riviera? Welp, a lot of scores are suddenly in play.

Within my second piece of criteria above, I included a comment about where players get to drop. This is important because I appreciate No. 13 at Austin Country Club despite the use of a water hazard.

The 13th hole at Austin Country Club

Misjudge or mishit your tee shot and come up short in the water? Congratulations, you get to try that tee shot again or drop from an unfavorable location where you must attempt to cover the water on your third shot. The risk is asymmetrical. A good shot will likely result in a birdie; a bad shot could result in a big number.

I’m expecting Hole 6 at LACC North to be my favorite short par 4 in professional golf this year.

The sixth green at LACC North

A well-placed tee shot can set a player up for a strong chance at birdie. A poor tee shot or approach shot brings high numbers into play. Chopping a tricky chip shot out of fescue onto a small, well-bunkered green can quickly make you hot behind the ears.

Holes like 12 at TPC Sawgrass and 17 at TPC Scottsdale might annoy a player, but they’re unlikely to enrage a player. The danger is much less harmful than it appears. Water is a get-out-of-jail-with-a-small-penalty card.

My ideal short par 4 is fraught with danger and asymmetrical risk like 6 at LACC and 10 at Riviera. On those holes, you’re in jail until you get yourself out of jail.

Bring on the short par 4s that result in club throws. Give me short par 4s that produce one of the harshest expressions in all of golf: “You’re still away.”