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March 23, 2023
3 min read

In Praise of the Fairway Bunker

The opener in Austin exhibits the strategy and cost a fairway bunker can impose on a player at the WGC Match Play

Gary Woodland walks up the 16th hole at Austin Country Club
Gary Woodland walks up the 16th hole at Austin Country Club

One of the best shots I’ve seen in 2023 was Hideki Matsuyama’s 63-yard bunker shot during the first round of the Sony Open.

He struck the ball cleanly, landed it on the proper shelf, and left himself a 10-foot putt for birdie. Extremely impressive golf shot.

How much easier would Hideki’s shot have been from the fairway? If your intuition is that a 63-yard shot from the fairway is much easier than a 63-yard bunker shot, you’d be correct. It’s easier by ~0.45 strokes on average on the PGA Tour.

When trying to estimate an expected scoring outcome, you should primarily focus on two things:

1. How likely is hitting the green?

2. How likely is hitting the shot within 10 feet of the hole?

These factors are why bunkers assess the strongest penalties at short-wedge length and long-iron length. With a short wedge, PGA Tour players have a high chance of hitting their approach shots within 10 feet of the hole from the fairway. It’s much more difficult to clip a bunker shot with a wedge inside 10 feet. Similarly, outside of 220 yards, it’s much more difficult to find the green from a fairway bunker than from the fairway; thus, the penalty for finding a bunker at this distance is quite high.

With this in mind, I’m a huge fan of the short par-4 opening hole at Austin Country Club. Measuring just 400 yards, the first hole is a unique blend of opportunity and danger. A steep run-off area greets players who go over the back of the green, leaving an impossible up-and-down to a back pin, especially when conditions are firm.

The fall-off at the back of the first green at Austin Country Club

Bunkers line the left side of the hole. Players who find the bunkers off the tee are presented with a tricky ~110 yard wedge shot. In the first round of the 2023 WGC Match Play, Justin Suh discovered the difficulty of this bunker shot the hard way.

The Suh mess to start his match against Max Homa, who won the hole with a bogey and eventually the match

The challenge imposed by the left side leads to many players favoring the right side of the hole. However, shots that miss the fairway to the right find trees, which leads to demanding punch recovery shots that can run up onto the green.

An imprecise play away from the fairway bunkers left can send you too far to the right, in tree trouble with a punch shot to a green with a fall-off in back

The first hole at ACC is an excellent representation of the entire golf course. ACC does not overwhelm with length, but well-positioned tee shots earn a reward. Accurate, tactful players like Billy Horschel, Matt Kuchar, and Kevin Kisner can thrive on a course like ACC.

Hopefully there isn’t too much rain for the remainder of the weekend. A firm Austin Country Club is among the best courses on the PGA Tour.

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About the author

Joseph LaMagna

I grew up playing golf competitively and caddied for ten years. I've also always enjoyed - usually responsibly - betting on sports. These worlds collided when I went to college, where I spent an absurd amount of time watching PGA Tour Live and building models to predict golf.

When I heard Andy on a podcast for the first time, I immediately knew I'd found a voice I wanted to follow. The intersection between design and strategy captivated me, and I've consumed just about every piece of Fried Egg Golf content since then. While I was finishing up my studies at UT-Austin, I worked for 15th Club (now 21st Club), a company that does data consulting for professional golfers. Upon graduation, I started Optimal Approach Golf, which provides data and strategy recommendations to professional and high-level amateur golfers. I've been full-time with Fried Egg Golf since January of 2024.

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