Tiering European Players for the 2025 Ryder Cup

Some people think I hate every PGA Tour golf course. I have good news for this crowd! I am a massive fan of Muirfield Village, host of this week’s Memorial Tournament. Memorial week is undoubtedly one of my favorites of the year.  In this week’s update, we’re discussing a player who should fare well at Memorial. Plus, a reader-submitted question about a PGA Tour change fresh off the press. 

But first, a look at the current state of Team Europe four months out from the Ryder Cup.

A few notes: 

If you want to compare Team Europe side by side with Team USA, you can find my most recent tiering exercise of the American team here. I’ll caveat that a few things have shifted since completing that exercise nearly a month ago. 

I’ll get backlash for how high I ranked Justin Rose and that he’s on the same level as Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg. That’s absurd. Rose nearly won the Masters this year and has been a stalwart of Team Europe for decades. His form is fine! It isn’t stellar, but it’s fine. He will get every possible benefit of the doubt when it comes to making this team, and it is deserved. A lot would have to go wrong for me to leave Rose, one of the great European players of the 21st century, at home. 

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen: You have my attention. The 25-year-old Dane is playing great golf, primarily on the DP World Tour, with impressive ball-striking numbers. In his most recent start at Quail Hollow, Neergaard-Petersen putted horrifically, losing almost two strokes per round on the greens to miss the cut on the number. Off the tee and with his long irons, he delivered. In two PGA Tour starts this year, he finished T-22 at the Valspar and solo second in Puerto Rico, sandwiched between three top 10 finishes on the DP World Tour. Considering the ball-striking and speed required at Bethpage, Neergaard-Petersen’s skillset could be a welcome addition to the squad, depending on how things shake out over the next couple of months. Oakmont is a huge opportunity for him. 

Many of you may think I have Rasmus Hojgaard tiered too high. Whatever, that’s fine. Hojgaard played consistent high-level golf last fall, including a win at the Irish Open and a runner-up at the DP World Tour Championship. He’s also made the cut in both major championship appearances this year. His consistency has been shaky, especially early in the calendar year, but he’s firmly in the mix. Also, let’s not overlook how much speed he has in the tank. Hojgaard crushes the golf ball, a valuable asset at Bethpage. 

Player Spotlight: Matt Fitzpatrick 

Leading into 2022, Matt Fitzpatrick was on a steady ascent. Perennially one of the best putters in the world, a lack of firepower off the tee prevented Fitzy from more wins, as he consistently yielded distance to the top players in the world. Nonetheless, he experienced plenty of success early in his career, notching multiple high-profile DP World Tour victories, including two DP World Tour Championships in Dubai (2020, 2016). 

But in the strongest fields, Fitzpatrick struggled to break through. So, he decided to speed train in the hopes of taking his game to the next level. During his first year on the PGA Tour in 2019, Fitzy averaged a 168-mph ball speed, ranking 125th on Tour. By 2022, he was averaging a 176-mph ball speed, ranking 45th on Tour. Then, of course, in June 2022, Fitzpatrick finally broke through and won the U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline – the culmination of years of hard work in every facet of his game, not just in the distance department.  

Since then? Mixed results. He produced both ups and downs in 2023, highlighted by two victories – the RBC Heritage and the Alfred Dunhill Links – but with less consistency than in 2022, with mediocre showings in majors. Outside of another year of stellar putting, 2024 didn’t live up to Fitzpatrick’s new elevated standards. He won zero times and cracked just two top 10s, a far cry from his 2022 season in which he won a major and racked up 12 top-10 finishes. He also battled his body, notably withdrawing from the Olympics due to a thumb injury.  

Looking forward, I am optimistic about what the rest of 2025 has in store for the Englishman. After a turbulent start to the 2025 season during which he and his longtime caddie, Billy Foster, split, Fitzpatrick has finally begun trending in the right direction. A weakness throughout 2024, Fitzpatrick’s iron play has recovered to a solid level as he’s gained strokes on approach shots in three straight tournaments, all coming in strong fields. Most impressively, he gained 1.5 strokes per round with his irons at the PGA Championship en route to a T-8 finish in his most recent start, ranking fifth in the field on approach play. 

Fortunately for Fitzpatrick, he doesn’t need to rely on elite iron play to win. In his last five seasons on the PGA Tour, he’s ranked as high as second in Strokes Gained: Putting and never outside the top 40 for a full season. He has been a phenomenal putter throughout his career. Curiously, Matt is currently having the worst putting season of his PGA Tour career, ranking 133rd in SG: Putting. However, putting is fickle; I expect a historically excellent Fitzpatrick to shoot up the putting ranks over the next few months. 

This week’s Memorial Tournament will provide considerable insight into the state of Matt Fitzpatrick’s game as he builds both his confidence entering the season’s third major and his Ryder Cup candidacy. Over the last five editions of the Memorial, just two golfers have three or more top 10s at Muirfield Village: Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler. Anything outside the top 15 this week should be disappointing for Fitzpatrick. 

‍Reader-Submitted Question

Question: Do you have thoughts on the announcement that the PGA Tour is changing the format of the Tour Championship? Will eliminating the starting strokes remove the incentive for top players to tee it up as often since their FedEx position entering the Tour Championship doesn’t matter anymore?

Answer: I have thoughts, yes. Those who have followed me for a while know that the Tour Championship has been one of the topics I’ve written about the most, along with the FedEx Cup points system and the Tour schedule. It’s not because I’m bored or running out of ideas; these are just extremely important topics within the context of pro golf. 

There are many different lenses and perspectives through which to understand the professional golf landscape and the fracturing that occurred when LIV entered the scene. But in my view, the majority of debated issues come back to media rights/playing requirements and major championship pathways. Can Rory and Scottie play in the Showdown on TNT? Should LIV players be banned from the PGA Tour? Should LIV events receive OWGR points? And none of these questions are new. 

Changing the Tour Championship format from 30 players competing in stroke play with a staggered start to 30 players competing in stroke play without a staggered start is a net positive. We moved from the dumbest format possible – one that wasn’t a real golf tournament – to a less dumb one that is a real golf tournament. Still, it isn’t good. And your question gets at why. 

Real championships in any sport meet the following criteria: 1) The scoreboard starts at zero for everybody, and 2) Anyone who wins is deserving of the trophy.

The Tour won’t commit to the format that accomplishes this: an 8-12 player match-play bracket where you play out every spot for season-ending positioning, because they have too many masters to serve. They don’t optimize for putting on the best competitive golf product. They optimize for creating as many playing opportunities as possible and keeping the lights on. 

The networks have reasonable pushback for why they don’t want match play. It’s an unpredictable format. Matches ending on the 15th hole can cause problems for the telecast. Plus, it creates additional challenges like selling hospitality tents. Will it be harder to sell out corporate hospitality space on the 18th hole when matches aren’t guaranteed to get there? Yes, but that’s sports. It’d be better for television networks if every series in the NBA Playoffs went seven games. Sometimes you get a four-game sweep. Sometimes a game goes to triple overtime and outside its television window. And sometimes you get an epic duel that comes down to the 18th hole. That’s sports. You adjust. There just isn’t enough imagination, leadership, and golf IQ in those rooms to sell everyone on the vision. 

Another question I received had to do with Rory McIlroy skipping another signature event at the Memorial this week. Again, another flavor of the recurring issues I highlighted above. Do I have a problem with him passing on Jack’s tournament? No. The onus is on the PGA Tour to lay out incentives for Rory to show up. If a $20 million purse isn’t enough to entice him and if he isn’t required to be there, why would I have a problem with it? Because I think Rory owes Jack something? He may have owed him a phone call, but that is a separate issue. 

If any of this comes across as cynical, I don’t intend it that way. The Memorial Tournament is going to be awesome, and I honestly don’t think Rory’s absence will be strongly felt. By the way, he’s committed to the RBC Canadian Open next week. You can’t play them all. 

In general, we should operate from the premise that golfers don’t have a responsibility to show up for anything unless they’re required to do so, and that golfers should set their schedules in whatever way empowers them to play their best possible golf. 

If Rory skipping the Memorial is a problem for the Tour, well, then figure out how to mandate his participation. And the best way to do that isn’t by directly stipulating it but instead by naturally incentivizing him through carrots, like qualifying for the Tour Championship. 

Many of the problems the Tour navigates are connected. The antidote to all of these problems is a strong, cohesive product culminating in a proper championship. This announcement didn’t bring us that. 

I wish the Tour gave less weight to player feedback and more to what creates the most competitive and exciting version of professional golf. At the same time, much progress has been made over the past three years, and I am optimistic about the prospect of more positive changes on the horizon. Perfect can’t be the enemy of good, and what we have today is much better than in the past. Now let’s get Jay Monahan out of office and keep the positive progress rolling. 

Ok, that’s all for this week. Have a question you want me to answer next week? Email me at joseph@thefriedegg.com!