Tiering 2025 Open Championship Contenders

Forgive the shortened version of the weekly update this week. I am on site at Royal Portrush and trying to spend as much time as I can on the course to provide you with insight throughout the rest of the week. 

In today’s update, we’re tiering the 2025 Open Championship contenders. I will caveat that the Open Championship is susceptible to more long shots getting into the mix, and I expect that to be the case this week. Thus, the graphic below by no means reflects all of the golfers who could get into the mix this week. 

I’m a little bit conflicted about Scottie Scheffler this week. I think some of the off-the-tee variance may work against him, as he could easily find a few pot bunkers on reasonably well-struck shots in this wind. Variance is never advantageous for the favorite. I also have some concerns about his putting. Would I be surprised if he won this week? Of course not. Am I higher on Scheffler than the consensus? No. 

Entering the week, I expected to be fairly low on Rory McIlroy. I am higher on him now than I expected to be. Through attending major championships over the last couple years, I’ve grown to believe in body language and how it reflects a player’s comfort level entering the biggest, most pressure-packed tournaments of the year. McIlroy seems very comfortable. He’s one of the best players of the 21st century and is still in his prime. I’m cautiously optimistic. My primary concern is his accuracy off the tee. 

{{inline-article}}

I’m pretty out on Bryson DeChambeau this week. His biggest advantage, his length, will be neutered by both the setup and the conditions. He’s struggled with his iron play this year, and he underperforms in this major championship much more than the others. I’d be surprised to see him anywhere near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. 

Make fun of Cameron Young all you want. That’s fine. One of these days he’s going to win. I don’t care how many graphics I have to be wrong about before I eventually get him right. He’s a talented player who has added solid putting to his arsenal. He has also been excellent in Open Championships. He can win this week. 

Ok, that’s all for this week. Have a question you want me to answer next week? Email me at joseph@thefriedegg.com!