Ryder Cup Check-in: Locks and Bubble Boys

Despite entering the final round four shots behind Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre, Scottie Scheffler came from behind to lock up yet another win on the PGA Tour. Because of course he did.

A few missed short putts jeopardized Scheffler’s chances of winning the tournament, but a marvelous fairway bunker shot on No. 15, followed by one of the best chip-ins of his career, catapulted him to a two-shot win over Bobby Mac, who struggled out of the gates and never quite found his footing.

The win marks the 18th PGA Tour victory of Scheffler’s career, 12 of which he’s earned since the start of 2024. The world No. 1 hasn’t just won at a prolific rate over the past few years. He’s stacked his trophy case with hardware from nothing but premier golf tournaments with strong fields (and a CJ Cup Byron Nelson). With the addition of a BMW Championship to his résumé, an already strong collection of tournament wins just got stronger.

Ryder Cup check-in

Outside of providing a fifth win of the season and another feather in the cap of a future Hall of Fame career, the BMW Championship marked the last week of the auto-qualification period for Team USA, as six Ryder Cup spots are now officially locked. Reasonable minds can debate how many golfers remain in consideration on each side before captain’s picks get announced, but below is a weekend results round-up from those contending for the final spots on each side.

Justin Thomas (Probable Lock) – T-33 at the BMW Championship. There is no way Keegan Bradley is considering leaving JT off the team, but his off-the-tee struggles persisted at Caves Valley this weekend. He is potentially a significant liability for Team USA at Bethpage.

Patrick Cantlay (Probable Lock) – T-30 at the BMW. Cantlay’s play has been uninspiring this season, but his form is still fine. I cannot anticipate a world in which he’s left off the team, especially considering the moments he’s delivered at recent team events.  

Collin Morikawa (Probable Lock but Shouldn’t Be?) – T-33 at the BMW. Morikawa’s recent sharp decline continues.

Ben Griffin (On the Bubble but Probable) – T-12 at the BMW. Griffin survived an early-round creatine overdose to fire a 1-under 69 after starting the round 6-over through three holes. He’s been far too good this summer to leave him off the team.

Cameron Young (On the Bubble) – Eleventh at the BMW. Win-5-11 in his last three starts. A T-4 at the U.S. Open in June. Very few golfers in the world have been better than Cameron Young over the last two months.

Sam Burns (On the Bubble) – T-4 at the BMW. His candidacy already had merit and has just been strengthened.

Keegan Bradley (On the Bubble) – T-17 at the BMW. It’s clear that Bradley badly wants to tee it up at Bethpage. Since winning the Travelers in late June, his last five starts have been shaky. His playing chances may hinge on how he fares at East Lake.

Maverick McNealy (On the Bubble) – Third at the BMW. His case wasn’t super strong entering this past weekend, but a third-place finish should significantly improve his chances of making the team. And for what it’s worth, he’s inside the top 12 on the points list.

Chris Gotterup (On the Bubble) – T-33 at the BMW. Gotterup may need a solid performance at East Lake.

As far as Team Europe is concerned, qualification ends after the Betfred British Masters next week. The European side is shaping up to look very similar to the 2023 team, both in terms of players and captains. Barring something unforeseen, eleven of the spots are likely to go to Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre, Tyrrell Hatton, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Jon Rahm.

As for the 12th spot…

Rasmus Hojgaard – Solo second at the Danish Golf Championship. It feels a little like Rasmus’s spot to lose.

Harry Hall – Sixth at the BMW. Here is where things get interesting! Another clutch high finish this weekend helped Hall stamp his ticket to East Lake, his latest performance over a stretch of very solid play dating back to the beginning of May. He hasn’t finished outside the top 30 in 11 straight starts, a span that includes two major championships. Hall’s biggest obstacle is that he’s relied on exceptional short game and putting, while Bethpage demands excellent ball-striking. Despite his lackluster ball-striking, Hall’s case strengthens by the day. He hasn’t had much communication with European captains, though.

Nicolai Hojgaard – T-34 at the Danish Golf Championship. He’s on the radar, but his case isn’t too compelling as it stands today.

Marco Penge – Win at the Danish Golf Championship. With two wins on the DP World Tour and a T-2 at the Genesis Scottish Open since April, Penge has flashed some upside, particularly off the tee. However, I’d find it hard to believe the European captains would have more confidence in him than any of the other three mentioned names.

Elsewhere in professional and amateur results

Sebastian Munoz defeated Jon Rahm in a one-hole playoff to win LIV Golf Indianapolis, a well-attended event that delivered a top-notch fan experience based on messages I received from attendees.

Although Rahm did not win a single LIV tournament this year and Joaquin Niemann won five times, Rahm still prevailed in the season-long points race that concluded at LIV Indy to capture the individual title. Based on internet reactions, some find it laughable that Rahm’s winless season could outpace Niemann’s five-win season. My broader takeaway is that regardless of tour or league, golf will always struggle to find a palatable season-ending format that is both exciting and rewards season-long play. I’ll continue to bang the drum for a true playoff (i.e., match play), but there appears to be little appetite for true playoffs among players and broadcast partners.

The other practical takeaway is that LIV should probably consider rewarding wins more heavily in their point distribution scheme, a change I wouldn’t be surprised to see take effect in response to this year’s result. Also in LIV news, Henrik Stenson, Andy Ogletree, Mito Pereira, Yubin Jang, Anthony Kim, and Frederik Kjettrup all finished the year in the “Drop Zone,” meaning they’ve been relegated from the league. I guess AK needs to start getting 2% better.

Lastly, the U.S. Amateur Championship at Olympic Club delivered some of the best theater and performances of the year. Eighteen-year-old Mason Howell beat Tennessee's Jackson Herrington, 7 and 6, in the 36-hole final match to become the first high schooler to win the Havemeyer Trophy since Matt Fitzpatrick in 2013.

On their paths to the final, Howell took down Oklahoma State’s Eric Lee in the semifinals. Herrington outlasted local fan favorite Niall Shiels Donegan in an epic back-and-forth duel on Saturday evening surrounded by the second-largest gallery in U.S. Amateur history. Hats off to the USGA for producing another top-tier viewing experience and championship.