Tiering the PGA Championship Contenders

Major week is upon us! Quail Hollow might not be my favorite golf course in the world – and it may be closer to my least favorite – but I’m still pumped for the action to get underway. Today we’re tiering the PGA Championship contenders, zooming in on one of the great major championship players of this generation, and talking mud balls. Let’s dig in. 

A few notes: 

My official pick to win this week is Scottie Scheffler. 

‍Last week’s article in which I tiered the best drivers in the world is of particular importance this week. Quail Hollow is a hardcore driving test. Expect strong results from elite drivers of the golf ball. For example, I didn’t include Keith Mitchell in this graphic, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish in the top 10. 

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One of my hottest takes this week is that Justin Thomas is overhyped entering this tournament. As I’ve consistently highlighted this year, JT’s iron play has returned to an elite standard, but he continues to battle wild tee shots. Thomas is currently outside the top 100 on Tour in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He’s riding hot recent results, though some of those came on setups that aren’t super driver-heavy (Harbour Town) or allowed golfers to spray the ball off the tee (Philly Cricket Club). Justin is still a legit threat, but I’m expecting errant tee shots to hold him back this week. 

I can see the angry Twitter replies already. And I can picture some of the avatars replying! Ludvig Aberg in the third tier?! Yes, Aberg is one of the best drivers in the world, full stop. His median outcome this week may not be as high as others in his row or the row below him, but he’s one of the few golfers in the world that I could envision keeping pace with a hot Rory, Scottie, or Bryson. I continue to believe that Aberg optimism will age well long term, especially on favorable setups. 

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I’m finally courageous enough to leave Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth off this graphic entirely. They’re not winning. Possible? I guess. But very, very unlikely. Not real threats. 

Player Spotlight: Xander Schauffele 

Xander Schauffele’s major championship track record is incredible. Since 2017, when Schauffele made his major debut, only Rory McIlroy (18) has more top 10s in majors than Schauffele (16). He’s also the only golfer in the world to finish in the top 10 in all of the last five majors starts.

Leading into the 2024 season, Xander picked up ball speed and elevated his off-the-tee play to another level. The result? His first two major championship wins. Fun fact: his 2024 major season is one of nine instances in the 21st century where a player won multiple majors in the same year. Tiger Woods owns four of those.  

At age 31, Xander should be squarely in his prime and playing the best golf of his career. However, Schauffele sustained a rib cage injury at the end of 2024 that disrupted the beginning of this season, sidelining him for a couple of months before making his competitive return at Bay Hill in March. How have his results been since then? Sneaky good! 

After understandably uninspiring appearances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship, Schauffele enters this week’s PGA Championship with four straight top 20s, three of which came in strong fields, including a T-8 at the Masters. He’s currently ranked seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 0.82 strokes per round in strong fields with his irons. With limited preparation time coming off injury, ranking that high with his iron play is thoroughly impressive. 

As I wrote yesterday, Quail Hollow is extremely favorable to bombers. Despite recovering from an injury, Schauffele is already back to smashing the ball off the tee. Last week at Philly Cricket Club, Schauffele ranked fourth in the field by average driving distance and touched a 188-mph ball speed. He isn’t quite Rory or Bryson’s length, but he is not far behind those guys. 

There also aren’t many golfers with a recent course history at Quail Hollow like Xander’s. In both the 2023 and 2024 editions of the Truist at Quail, Schauffele finished runner-up. And he held the 54-hole lead last year before getting gunned down and outplayed by McIlroy on Sunday. 

All of this is to say: Xander isn’t one of the favorites this week. And he shouldn’t be. Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Bryson DeChambeau all have better chances of winning this golf tournament than Xander. But after those three names, it’s hard to confidently place anybody above Schauffele. 

He is one of the very best major championship players of his generation, playing a golf course well-suited for his game. If any of the top three golfers bring their A-games, I don’t think Schauffele can keep up. But if the top three leave the door open this week, Xander is arguably the top contender to take advantage. 

Reader-Submitted Question

Question: Are there any small things to watch for this week at the PGA? 

Answer: Ball speed numbers will be interesting to track. It’s bombs away this week, so I’m eager to see which sub-180 guys hang around on the weekend. I always enjoy the dynamic of watching a short hitter grind his way around a distance-friendly golf course. 

Something smaller than that? I think it’ll be pretty interesting to pay attention to apex heights this week. The golfers who can launch with height have a few opportunities to cut corners over trees on a few holes out there. Specifically, I’m eager to see how Joaquin Niemann’s low ball flight impacts him this week. Is he unable to take lines that guys like Rory and Bryson can take, for example, cutting the corner on No. 2? 

Sticking with apex height, I’m amused at this question I received last year on Twitter from LukeOC that he resurfaced again this week. He asked if players with low apex heights could have an advantage in wet conditions when the tournament isn’t played under preferred lies, since their tee shots won’t accumulate as much mud. 

I’m struggling to remember exactly which golfers have talked about this, but I swear I can recall a few mentioning that sometimes they hit flatter tee shots to give themselves fewer mudballs. If there is any legitimate benefit here, I am confident that it is very small. Nonetheless, it’s a potentially amusing game-within-the-game to monitor this week, considering the fairways will be wet, especially early in the week. 

Ok, that’s all for this week. Thank you for reading! Have a question you’d like me to answer next week? Email me at joseph@thefriedegg.com!