What to Watch For at the Scottish Open

As usual, expect to see some high winds at this week’s Scottish Open. Although the predicted winds are relatively mild, we could see some stretches with winds close to 30 mph, especially on Sunday.

Recently, I’ve been thinking about the relationship between short rough and wind. As I discussed with Andy on last week’s Thursday episode of the Fried Egg Podcast, when a player hits a shot from the rough, the rough takes some spin off the ball. In windy environments, having less spin can be beneficial. You don’t want to launch a wedge up into the wind with a high spin rate.

In looking through PGA Tour courses in my database with the lowest rough penalties in 2022, the Renaissance Club and Pebble Beach are both near the top, each with a rough penalty of ~0.18 strokes. The rough at each of these golf courses is short, which explains most of the low rough penalty. However, it’s interesting to consider the extent to which the windy conditions further decrease the penalty associated with finding the rough.

I like Jordan Spieth’s chances of contending this week. Jordan is not the most accurate driver of the golf ball, but he’ll get away with being a bit inaccurate at the Renaissance Club. He is skilled at flighting shots and controlling his spin. His track record on similar setups makes sense within the context of his skill set. His elite results in windy conditions with short rough—think Pebble Beach and past Open Championships—bode well for his chances at the Scottish Open, where he finished T-10 last summer.

This week, I’m keen to watch the relationship between wind and spin, with extra focus on how shots fare from the short rough. I’m also eager to observe Spieth’s performance this week as he prepares for a bid at the Open Championship next week.

If there were more links golf courses on the PGA Tour schedule, Jordan Spieth would likely be one of the biggest beneficiaries.