Paulie's Picks: 2026 U.S. Open Betting Preview

Welcome to 2026 U.S. Open week at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club! This isn’t the prototypical U.S. Open test most people are used to: a long course with narrow fairways and thick rough. Shinnecock is a great amalgamation of everything needed to identify the best golfer in the world. 

The fairways are very wide by U.S. Open standards, but due to the firmness and elevation changes, they’ll play a bit narrower than they look. Most players will use less than driver on many tee shots to keep the ball in the fairway and avoid the extremely penal fescue rough. So in the grand scheme of things, accuracy reigns supreme over distance this week off the tee. A few good examples of players who can launch long irons and fairway woods off the tee and keep the ball in play are Min Woo Lee and Gary Woodland. 

Even with wider fairways, being able to place the ball on the correct side of the fairway can be very advantageous. Just ask Rory McIlroy. Having the best angle for your approach shot is paramount, given the small effective size of the greens. With all the runoffs and slopes, the greens play very small, especially with their typical firmness. Players who are very precise with their irons will be rewarded. Players who can’t control their distance with their approaches will be punished.

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Around the green play presents lots of options with shaved runoffs in difficult spots. Sometimes the best option is to play safe and accept bogey to avoid disaster. This will be apparent on holes such as Nos. 10 and 11 this week, which can feature some diabolical pin locations (especially if the wind picks up). Ultimately, if you are missing a lot of greens this week, you simply will struggle to contend.

In terms of the greens at Shinnecock, they challenge players with extreme slopes and ridges, which when exposed to the wind, can create lightning-quick putting surfaces. The test only amplifies as the greens bake out in the summer sun each afternoon. When greens are this difficult, putting is often of less importance. 

So what does the ideal player look like this week?

• Accuracy over distance
• Patience to plod your way around the course while avoiding the landmines that can be found on almost every shot
• Precise iron play, which allows for lots of pars and avoiding the difficult green surrounds

Give me an above-average iron player who can keep it in play off the tee with their club of choice. This really should allow a large portion of players to contend if their games are firing on all cylinders.