A New Day?

Sports gambling is one of the dumbest things we do as a society. It’s such a random way to piss away money. That said, I’ll be placing a few shekels on Jason Day this season. The 35-year-old Aussie, who makes his 2023 debut this week at the PGA Tour’s American Express, is on his way back. Maybe.

In 2015-16, Day was a top-25 player in every Strokes Gained category and the best putter on the planet. He’s had a significant fall from grace over the past six years, largely because of routine back injuries. He has taken hits in every SG category, with his biggest tumbles coming in SG: Approach and SG: Putting. He dropped as low as No. 175 in the Official World Golf Ranking this fall, lower than he had been since 2009.

You: Hey Will, I thought you said Jason Day was on his way back?

Ah, right. After poor performances for much of last year, Day reeled off four straight top-25 finishes during the PGA Tour’s fall series. These performances were largely driven by improvements in SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach. He even went nine straight events with positive SG: Approach. This fall stretch got him up to No. 112 in the OWGR. While that’s still not great for a former world No. 1, it’s still the first time since 2016 that Day was ranked higher at the end of the season than at the beginning. You know what we call that? Progress.

You: That’s great, Will. But four good events doesn’t necessarily mean a bounce-back year in 2023.

Sure. But a man’s got to believe in something. A sharp uptick in iron play and a slight improvement in driving are good place to start. According to Data Golf, Day’s 25-round moving average in SG: Approach is as good as it’s been since 2016. He has a ways to go in other skill areas, but approach stats are strongly correlated with consistency. If healthy (that’s a big “if”!), Jason Day still has elite potential. We’ll see in 2023.