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February 4, 2026
5 min read

PGA Tour, LIV Golf Players with Questions to Answer in 2026

Joseph LaMagna's latest tiers put young talent and aging stars in the spotlight

In this week’s update, I’m looking at players with pivotal upcoming seasons. I normally build a visual and write an assortment of notes about a handful of players featured in the graphic. This week, I’m focusing the notes section on just one player instead because few names in the sport inspire a wider range of opinion about their game. Let’s dive in. 

Every golfer in the above graphic is compelling for one reason or another, but let’s face it: Ludvig Aberg is the most interesting. From early on in his professional career, I’ve been consistently pro-Aberg, believing he will blossom into a perennial top-five player in the world. It’s a position I maintain today. 

The pro-Aberg position is one that gets challenged from time to time. You don’t have to look far to find someone eager to call him the most overrated golfer in the world. And to be fair, that assertion is not totally without merit. There is a lot of hype around the 26-year-old Swede. 

This past weekend, as Aberg spiraled to a near-dead-last-place finish at Torrey Pines, an X user challenged me on my Aberg optimism, suggesting that Chris Gotterup has a brighter future ahead of him than Aberg. The two players are virtually the same age and Gotterup has won twice since Aberg’s last victory in February 2025. It’s a reasonable stance to take. 

Though I quite like Gotterup’s game, I’d still take Aberg for the long run. 

Take a look at the table below. These are the 10 best early major championship careers of the past 17 years, ranked by Strokes Gained per round, starting in 2009 with the Rory McIlroy era. 

Before we go any further, I need to add some context to the table above. The numbers are derived from players' first two full seasons of major championships, where “full” is defined as at least two major appearances. Essentially, I didn’t want to count one-off major appearances as a player’s first major season. So, in Scottie Scheffler’s case, 2020 marks the start of his major career and his stats would therefore be calculated from his first two major seasons: 2020 and 2021.  

The most important note is that this logic makes no consideration for age. Since we don’t expect players to perform at their peak until their late-20s into their mid-30s, the table above effectively penalizes golfers for making major appearances at a young age. Based on the definition I used, Jon Rahm – who did not make the list – began his major championship career at age 21. McIlroy’s began at 19. Jimmy Walker was 34 by the time he played two majors in the same year for the first time in 2013. The point is that we should expect young debutants' performances to improve as they age into their primes, so showing up on this list at a young age is a positive signal for what their major championship career may hold.

Aberg has four missed cuts in eight major championship appearances, and the other four finishes were all in the top 25, highlighted by contending late in each of his first two Masters appearances – second (2024) and seventh (2025). Outside of majors, Aberg’s play has been solid too, with three worldwide wins since turning professional in the summer of 2023. Plus, he is equipped with a skill that generally withstands the test of time: elite driving. 

Though the above graphic has its limitations, early major championship success has been a strong indicator of future major championship success. Hideki Matsuyama ranked 13th in Strokes Gained per major championship round in his first two full major seasons. Xander Schauffele ranked 16th. Both have gone on to win major championships. 

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Exceptions exist, but often great players demonstrate that they’re great players early in their major championship careers. Jason Day did that before becoming the top-ranked player in the world in 2015. Scheffler did that before becoming the best player since Tiger Woods. Aberg has done that. 

I’ll also note that Gotterup – who gained 2.45 strokes per round in his two major appearances in 2025 – will likely end up ranking very high in this table once he completes his second full season of majors in 2026. I’d just like to see him sustain another year of solid play before placing him ahead of Aberg. 

This is an important year for Aberg to continue stepping in the right direction. A few recent results haven’t been up to his standards, but let’s not lose the forest for the trees when discussing one of golf’s most promising talents. I’m alarmed in the short term by what we witnessed at Torrey Pines. Over the long term, though, there aren’t many better investments than real estate on Aberg Island. 

About the author

Joseph LaMagna

I grew up playing golf competitively and caddied for ten years. I've also always enjoyed - usually responsibly - betting on sports. These worlds collided when I went to college, where I spent an absurd amount of time watching PGA Tour Live and building models to predict golf.

When I heard Andy on a podcast for the first time, I immediately knew I'd found a voice I wanted to follow. The intersection between design and strategy captivated me, and I've consumed just about every piece of Fried Egg Golf content since then. While I was finishing up my studies at UT-Austin, I worked for 15th Club (now 21st Club), a company that does data consulting for professional golfers. Upon graduation, I started Optimal Approach Golf, which provides data and strategy recommendations to professional and high-level amateur golfers. I've been full-time with Fried Egg Golf since January of 2024.

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