Tiering Brooks Koepka’s Career Wins

The biggest story of the week is Brooks Koepka’s return to the PGA Tour. The five-time major winner makes his season debut at Torrey Pines after mutually parting ways with LIV Golf. Koepka’s return has garnered attention from the larger sports world largely because he is the first significant name to exit his contract with LIV early and come back to the Tour. 

However, Koepka fascinates me for reasons other than deciding to step away from LIV. He is a quintessential litmus test of the relationship between current form and pedigree. How you project his future is a reflection of how much weight you assign to past performances. 

In today’s weekly update, I’ll offer expectations for Koepka’s future along with some thoughts on the balance between form and pedigree. 

No disrespect to the Dunlop Phoenix or to the Challenge Tour, but I limited the exercise to major, PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and LIV wins.

The main element to note on the above graphic is that Koepka has really only captured one meaningful win over the last four years. Sure, that is a reflection of opportunity, at least in part. He won five times on LIV, so if you want to argue that I’m underselling his recent form, go for it. But relative to PGA Tour events and, obviously, major championships, LIV events just aren’t that difficult to win. 

Looking beyond win totals, Koepka’s performance in major championships has clearly declined from his 2017-2019 peak. 

To this point in his career, Koepka has registered negative Strokes Gained in 13 of 46 major championship appearances. Four of those tournaments were between 2012 and 2014, a stretch that included his first three career major starts. Understandable. The remaining nine have all happened in 2021 or later, with two of his worst performances occurring in 2025 with missed cuts at the PGA Championship and Open Championship by eight and six shots, respectively. He is 35 years old, and his game has been trending in the wrong direction. 

Of course, there are reasons to be bullish on Koepka’s future. He won a major in 2023; it’s not like we’re talking about a guy who has been miring in obsolescence for a decade like Anthony Kim. He carded the third best Thursday round at Oakmont last summer before ultimately finishing T-12. This past September, he had a legitimate chance to win the FedEx Open de France late in the tournament, a sign that his game could be turning a corner. 

Moreover, you can rationalize some of his underwhelming performance by adding context. Brooks has experienced injury, family challenges, and reported dissatisfaction playing on LIV for pretty much the entirety of his tenure there. “When your mind is free, sometimes it's easier to go play golf and play your best,” Koepka said during his Tuesday press conference at the Farmers Insurance Open. A physically healthy Koepka with a refreshed headspace could turn back into the dominant force we’re accustomed to watching hoist major championship trophies. That’s the bull case. 

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Yet, my expectations for Koepka are low until he proves me wrong. I fervently believe that current form is still an underrated aspect of projecting golf performance, at least among casual fans and even to an extent among more golf-informed audiences. People love to come up with reasons why declining golfers are poised to reclaim the magic of their former selves. I have been guilty of doing so myself. Though I don’t want to dismiss things like experience entirely, narrative-based rationales cloud reality more often than they provide clarity. Don’t overlook the golfer who is playing well right now in favor of the golfer chasing form we haven’t seen in years. 

If Brooks Koepka strings together a few consecutive demonstrations of top-tier ball-striking, I will happily re-evaluate my stance on what his future could hold. Until then, I’m highly skeptical he’ll crack the top five of a strong field, and I am highly confident sportsbooks are eager to accept action on Koepka at this week’s Farmers. 

That’s all for this week! Have feedback? Topics you’d like to see explored? Email me: joseph@thefriedegg.com.

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