Scatterplots: Thursday at the 2025 U.S. Open

FEGC,

We're giving a new piece of content a try during this week's U.S. Open. Every day, I'm going to pick out a scatterplot from the day's play and dive into what it means, both in relation to Oakmont Country Club's architecture but also the decisions made by the players themselves. Today, we're starting with the second shots on the par-5 fourth hole.

Oakmont's two par 5s, Nos. 4 and 12, are two of the course's breather holes. Well, in theory. Both holes play over 600 yards but firm and fast conditions make them reachable for those who find the fairway. What struck me most in looking into the data on No. 4 was how widespread the second shots were in relation to the hole. The best second shot found the bottom of the cup as Patrick Reed holed out for albatross. The worst was an array of second shots from the right side that left players either in a bunker or deep grass and 250-plus yards away from the hole.

The par-5 fourth hole played to about a 4.9 average on Thursday, the second easiest on the course in relation to par. More interesting, more than half the field made a score other than par on No. 4. There were roughly 40 eagles and birdies (and an albatross) and another thirty-something bogeys or worse. It wasn't hard necessarily, but the hole had some of the most variance we saw during the first round of the U.S. Open.

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What I like most about the fourth hole, and the 12th for that matter, is how everything about it shifts your vision to the right. The church pew bunker makes you aim right, the bunkers along the hole all push your eye line right to tempt you to carry them, and the hole bends right the entire way. You can think about bailing left with your second, but then you are fighting the angle on the third shot. Anyone who finds the rough off the tee immediately has to figure out how to swallow their ego and not try to carry the bunkers further down the hole. You can tell in this data plot that many of those guys struggled to do that, although plenty got away with it by finishing on the right side of the fairway. And those who did hit a good drive were almost certainly able to fire at the green and score.

The best golf holes not only give you different strategic options but they also provide scoring variance. Oakmont does that in a variety of ways, perhaps no hole did it better on Thursday than the par-5 fourth.