Paulie's Picks: 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

The PGA Tour heads to Texas this week for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, held at TPC Craig Ranch, which underwent a full renovation at the hands of Lanny Wadkins after Scottie Scheffler’s win last year. Greens were repositioned, recontoured, and resurfaced with a strain of Bentgrass that can sustain the southern heat and allows for faster green speeds. The fairways were changed to Zoysia grass, and the rough was changed from Rye to Bermuda. This change in rough will make it a lot less predictable for both approach shots and chip shots around the green. Anytime there is a renovation, it is a bit of an unknown as to what the scoring will be like, but I’d predict a winning score near 18 under.

The field is headlined by the defending champion Scheffler, who is a whopping +170 to win the event. I believe that is the lowest price I can remember since Tiger Woods at his peak, largely due to Scottie’s current ball-striking form and a 147-player field that only features two other players in the top 50 in the world. This has the feel of an opposite-field event, and we have the PGA Tour schedule makers to thank for that after putting two signature events and a major in the last three weeks.

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So with the renovation, what areas of a player’s game are most important this week? I would expect to see an increased importance on off-the-tee play. With the rough change from Rye to Bermuda it will be more difficult to control approach shots from the rough. Many bunkers were also moved to adjust to the current landing areas for Tour players off the tee. Let’s take a look at a few players to bet on this week who excel off the tee:

Jordan Spieth, Top 20: -110

Jordan Spieth comes into this event after recording a top-20 finish in both majors so far in 2026. He has been striking the ball very well this year, especially off the tee, where he has gained 10 strokes over his last three events.

If Spieth can keep that driving form he will have a chance to contend at his hometown event, and a weak field gives us an additional edge in the top 20 market. Look for Spieth to linger near the top of the leaderboard.

Michael Brennan: Top 40, -110

How many players in this field have a higher world ranking than Michael Brennan? Three. Brennan is No. 56 in the world and is only behind Scheffler, Spieth, and Si Woo Kim. Brennan leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in 2026 and is gaining nearly a stroke per round off the tee over his last five events. This elite driving will allow him to capitalize on the par 5s this week and have much less club into the new greens, which will likely be firmer than in years past. In such a weak field, I will gladly back the best driver at -110 to finish top 40.