Paulie's Picks: 2026 BMW Championship

After Scottie Scheffler’s blowout win in Memphis, the FedEx Cup Playoffs roll on to St. Louis for the BMW Championship, held this year at Bellerive Country Club. All of the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings are in the field this week, and the top 30 at week’s end will advance to next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta. Bellerive is a course many players will not be that familiar with, as the last event it hosted was the 2018 PGA Championship. There have been some alterations to the course since then, but not enough to change the skills required to succeed. I expect a similar result to 2018, where driving distance was crucial, while accuracy off the tee, chipping, and putting were of lesser importance. This course basically turned into bombing driver without much strategy combined with a lot of mid irons. So with distance being key, I’m going to focus my betting efforts on a few of the more under-the-radar drivers of the ball:

Chris Gotterup: Top 20, -132

Chris Gotterup’s game is very similar to that of Brooks Koepka, who won the PGA here in 2018, and he’s ranked fourth in the field in driving. I don’t quite understand how a player who has played at an elite level all year and won three times is only -132 to finish top 20 in a field of 50 players. 

Michael Thorbjornsen: Top 10, +345

Michael Thorbjornsen ranks 10th in this field off the tee. He picked up his first PGA Tour victory two starts ago at the Rocket Classic at another course where he could put his elite driver to use. We are getting a bit of a reduced price this week on Thor after a lackluster T-47 in Memphis, which wasn’t that surprising given it was a bad course fit and his first start post-win. Most of his best results this year have come on tracks where he has been able to rip driver off most tee boxes (Farmers, T-18; Houston Open, T-14; Scottish Open, T-7; Rocket, 1). Look for Thorbjornsen to play aggressively this week as he needs a high finish to move from 41st into the top 30 to qualify for his first Tour Championship.

Michael Brennan: Top 10, +395

Michael Brennan is in a very similar spot to Thorbjornsen. He won two starts ago at the Wyndham and had a ho-hum T-42 finish last week in Memphis. He ranks second in driving distance, which could provide a massive advantage over the field. He can make birdies by the bunches and is basically in a free-roll situation at 47th in the standings. According to the PGA Tour, Brennan will need at least a two-way tie for second to make it to East Lake, so I love backing him for a top 10 at +395.