Paulie's Picks: 2026 John Deere Classic

This holiday weekend, the PGA Tour heads to the Midwest for the 2026 John Deere Classic, held once again at TPC Deere Run in the Quad Cities on the Illinois and Iowa border. This event has been a mainstay on Tour for decades and often provides great theater despite a usually weaker field. TPC Deere Run is a very straightforward golf course that simply rewards good play. If you can keep the ball in the fairway off the tee, you can light the course up with birdies. But if you struggle off the tee, a good score can be tough to come by. Year in and year out the players at the top of the leaderboard hit a high percentage of fairways, which then turns the tournament into a short-iron and putting contest. 

This event is where we saw players like Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau get wins early in their careers. Could we see a similar breakthrough this week with Jackson Koivun? I think we might. Let’s dig into a few of the best bets this week:

Jackson Koivun: Top 30, -104

I am wondering how long the golf betting markets will take to adjust to how good Jackson Koivun actually is. Based on my models, I have him as the best player in this field, just slightly ahead of Ben Griffin and Chris Gotterup. Now that may sound crazy for a player fresh out of college, but if I can pat myself on the back a bit here, my metrics were also early to call out other young top talents out of school like Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland. Koivun doesn’t really have a flaw in his game as he is above average in every category. In his five PGA Tour starts dating back to last year’s 11th-place finish at the Deere, Koivun’s worst finish was 23rd at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills. Getting him at -104 to finish top 30 seems like way too low a price in this field for a player who will likely be a top 10 player in the world in the near future.

Carson Young: Make the Cut, -130

Carson Young has played most of his golf on the Korn Ferry Tour this season with a few lower-level PGA Tour events on the side. Over the last month, he has finished 17th or better in each of the three KFT events he has played. He now heads to an event where he has had the most success on the PGA Tour, with fifth-place finishes each of the last two years at the Deere. He is above average in accuracy off the tee and with his short irons, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that TPC Deere Run is a great fit for him.

Zach Johnson: Make the Cut, -130

Zach Johnson has played the Deere every year its been contested since 2007. When was the last time he missed the cut, you ask? How about 2007! Yes, he is more likely to contend on the senior circuit these days, but he is arguably in his best form of the last few years. ZJ has played eight PGA Tour Champions events this season and his worst finish is eighth. His game is predicated on accuracy off the tee and elite short-iron play. Growing up in Iowa, the Deere is his fifth major. I will gladly back ZJ to make the cut once again at -130.