Paulie's Picks: 2025 3M Open

This week the PGA Tour heads to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. This is an important event for almost every player in the field as we only have a few weeks left until the FedEx Cup Playoffs. TPC Twin Cities is an interesting course in that it boasts an abundance of water on almost every hole, similar to what you would find at a golf course in Florida. The course features wide enough landing areas off the tee and large greens, but if you miss either the fairway or the green, there is a very good chance of a watery grave for your golf ball. 

As such, the handicapping for this week is very simple. You need to be an elite driver off the ball with an average to above-average approach game. Chipping doesn’t matter as much because the green in regulation rate is one of the highest on Tour. Over the years, we have seen putting not be as important because the fast, bentgrass greens tend to be fairly easy to read. Meanwhile, the penalty for errant ball-striking can be extreme with large numbers lurking around every corner. The player who drives it the best will have a lot of birdie looks, even with average approach shots. Let’s take a look at three elite drivers to target this week:

Michael Thorbjornsen: Top 20, +220

Michael Thorbjornsen’s game is trending in the right direction, especially off the tee, as he has gained strokes in every event since the Valspar Championship in March. He has finished fourth, 21st, and 14th in the last three weeks. The main weakness in his game is chipping, which won’t be of much importance at TPC Twin Cities. If he can continue his stellar driving, he is going to have plenty of easy birdie opportunities this week and another chance to finish in the top 20.

Emiliano Grillo: Top 20, +225

Emiliano Grillo has finished inside the top 20 in five of his last 11 events, including a playoff loss a few weeks ago at the John Deere Classic. He is an elite ball-striker who putts best on fast greens. Grillo has gained strokes off the tee in all but one event dating back to early February. He has finished in the top ten in three of his five appearances at this event. 

Rico Hoey: Top 20, +250

Rico Hoey has gained strokes off the tee in all but one event since mid-January. His elite ball-striking in 2025 has been let down by a balky putter for most of the year. Just how good is he hitting it? With a field-average putter a few weeks ago at the John Deere, he would have won by two instead he finishing 11th. He continued that stellar play last week at the Barracuda Championship, finishing eighth. If th is one saving grace, it’s that he also putts best on fast, bentgrass greens. Anywhere near average putting this week paired with his ball-striking should lead him to a top-20 finish.