Paulie's Picks: 2026 3M Open

The PGA Tour returns stateside this week to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. This event is in a weird spot on the schedule as many players either just competed in the Open Championship or in the opposite-field event in Punta Cana. You have to consider that level of travel when handicapping players this week, plus the added pressure and motivation with the FedEx Cup Playoffs just a few weeks away.

We know that Minnesota is known as the Land of 10,000 Lakes. This holds true at TPC Twin Cities, as there is water in play everywhere, similar to what you see at PGA National for the Cognizant Classic each year. Now don’t get me wrong the landing areas are wide here, but if you miss the fairways or the greens, you will likely find a watery grave.

Over the seven years that TPC Twin Cities has held this event, we can clearly determine what is important to succeed and what isn’t. With all of the water in play, you really can’t fake your way around. Over the course of four days, subpar ball-striking, especially off the tee, will be exposed. Elite, accurate drivers who have at least an average approach game have the best chance to win. The importance of a player’s short game has historically been muted by the large greens at TPC Twin Cities. The bentgrass greens are a Tour-average speed and fairly easy to read, so there is less skill separation in putting, as well. So this leads me to focus on above-average drivers of the ball who come into this week in good form:

Ben James: Top 40, -110

Ben James has not missed the cut in any of his five events since turning pro six weeks ago. He has solid finishes of 23rd at the U.S. Open, 15th two weeks ago at the ISCO Championship, and fourth last week in Punta Cana. James is above average in all four key metrics and has gained strokes off the tee in all events this year. As we see with many other young players, the books struggle to catch up to how good he is and continually undervalue him. He makes for a great option for a top 40 this week.

Ben Kohles: Top 40, +100

Ben Kohles took last week off, so he should be rested after a great two-month stretch that started with a win on the Korn Ferry Tour. Since that victory, he has continued his awesome play with five straight top 30s on the PGA Tour, including a chance to win at the John Deere Classic. Kohles has finished top 25 in both previous appearances at TPC Twin Cities, which makes sense given that his accuracy off the tee sets him up well to avoid all the water.

Emiliano Grillo: Top 40, +128

Similar to Kohles, Emiliano Grillo should be well rested after not playing last week. He has finished 26th or better in his last three events, including the U.S. Open. Grillo has also finished in the top 25 in five of six starts at TPC Twin Cities.