2026 Open Championship Longshot Picks

It’s time for the final men’s major of the year, the 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, a course most known for Jordan Spieth’s crazy final round in 2017 en route to victory. A lot has changed in the nine years since, but the general feel is still the same. 

The largest changes to the course are:

• The par-4 fifth hole was changed from an awkward, blind tee shot that was often a layup to a now risk-reward, drivable par 4 with multiple penal bunkers in view from the tee, forcing players to make a key decision based on pin location and wind direction.
• The tee box on the par-3 seventh was adjusted for varying wind directions, the hole itself was shortened to 150 yards, and the green was raised. This should be a hole that rewards great tee shots with birdies and punishes shots that miss the green, which could easily happen when the wind picks up.
• The old par-5 14th hole has been removed and replaced by the previous 15th hole. The hole was lengthened by 60 yards and not features more strategic bunkering. No. 15 was the easiest hole in 2017, but should be more difficult this year. 
• The 15th is a new par 3 that can play anywhere from 150 to 250 yards. I would expect most days to play between 200 and 250 yards, with flexibility based on wind direction.
• The tee box on the par-4 18th hole was repositioned to remove the dogleg, and now players face an amazing view of the clubhouse and grandstands in the distance with very challenging bunkers in play off the tee.

Overall, these changes have made the course slightly more difficult while providing more risk-reward options and flexibility for course setup. Great changes in my opinion.

{{inline-course}}

The Open Championship and links golf differ from the other three majors in terms of handicapping and what is needed to succeed. On Tour, players are used to dome-like conditions where they play all their shots through the air. Links golf often includes high winds and other challenging natural elements, with more shots being played on the ground than through the air. 

Royal Birkdale will be no different this week as the course features penal bunkers and a wind that plays a key factor throughout the round. When you combine that with the dunes across the property, it makes it very difficult to ascertain wind direction and strength. Mother Nature will ultimately decide how tough or easy the course will play. In 2017, Branden Grace shot an 8-under 62 in soft conditions with minimal wind. 

Another thing that differentiates the Open Championship from the U.S. Open and PGA Championship is the tee times. All players will tee off from the first tee. That’s 52 groups each day. With that being said, I would suggest exercising caution when placing any bets or entering any contests this week. You should wait until 24 hours before the championship starts to get an idea of whether or not there will be a weather edge for any group of players.

The rest of the Fried Egg Golf crew did a great job highlighting some of the top players vying for the 2026 Open Championship, so we’ll take a closer look at a few other players who I consider links specialist longshots:

{{inline-article}}

Alex Noren: Top 20, +345

Alex Noren has played in six of the last eight Opens, finishing in the top 25 in five of them, including a T-6 finish at Royal Birkdale in 2017. He is an absolute grinder who excels in the wind and at links golf. He has had what seems to be a very quiet 2026, but he does have three top-12 finishes in signature events, which boast small but very strong fields. Let’s keep an eye on a potential wager on Noren this week.

Jordan Smith: Top 20, +475 

Jordan Smith has been in contention at the Genesis Scottish Open this week and finished in the top 50 in three of the last four Opens. This in-form links player could make for a great top 40 or make the cut bet this week.

Matthew Jordan: Top 20, +720 

Matthew Jordan is another links specialist who most Americans (who don’t listen to the Shotgun Start) do not know. He has played in the last three Opens and has two top-10 finishes. He qualified for this year’s Open via the 36-hole Final Qualifying a few weeks ago. He could make for a great dark horse bet or in pools and fantasy contests this week.

Matthew Southgate: Top 20, +2600

This is not a misprint. Yes, that says 26/1 for a top-20 finish. Matthew Southgate is the ultimate links specialist. He has played in five of the last nine Opens with three top-25 finishes, including a T-6 finish here in 2017. He comes into this championship in great form. He won a month ago on the HotelPlanner Tour (the Korn Ferry Tour of the DP World Tour) and gained entry to this year’s Open via Final Qualifying.

I’ll be back with my best bets for the week on Tuesday (once we have tee times and better clarity on the weather).