Paulie's Picks: 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge

The PGA Tour stays in waterlogged Texas for another week as it heads to historic Colonial Country Club, host of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Colonial is very different from the courses we typically see week in and week out on Tour as it places a large emphasis on accuracy and precision over distance and aggression. The winning score isn’t the 24-under total that we’ve grown accustomed to most weeks. The last seven winners have finished between 8 and 15 under par. This year, with the softer conditions, I expect a winning score near the top of that range. Colonial has plenty of defenses for the modern player, including numerous doglegs, tight fairways, unpredictable Bermuda rough, and small, fast greens. It’s very difficult to control approach shots from the rough given the small size of the greens, which opens up the event for some players who normally couldn’t contend on a standard Tour setup. Let’s take an in-depth look at one such player who I think has a chance this week:

Mark Hubbard: Top 40, +185

Even though he’s a Texas resident, Mark Hubbard probably isn’t a player you would expect to be in this article, but here we are. Hubbard comes into the event striking his irons the best he ever has, gaining 16.8 strokes on approach over his last two events en route to a runner-up finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic and 31st at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. But just how good is he hitting it? Scottie Scheffler, who had one of the best approach seasons of all time last year, averaged 1.29 strokes gained on approach per round. Hubbard has gained 2.1 strokes on approach over his last two events. Now I’m not equating Hubbard’s short stretch to Scheffler’s prolonged dominance, but it is clear that Hubbard has found something with his irons, and the betting market hasn’t captured this sudden elite improvement. 

Hubbard is also a great course fit as he isn’t the longest hitter in the field and relies more on accuracy and precision than brute force. Because of that, he has made the cut in all seven of his previous appearances at Colonial. Sign me up for a top-40 finish at +185.