Paulie's Picks: 2026 PGA Championship Best Bets

The 2026 PGA Championship is at Aronimink Golf Club this week, and we’ve already covered what skills are needed to succeed at Aronimink and picked a few longshots to target. Now it’s time to lock in a few best bets for the week:

Made Cut Parlay: Adam Scott and J.J. Spaun, +100

Over the last two years, Adam Scott has only missed four cuts worldwide. Talk about consistency. Scott, at 45, has gained strokes ball-striking (off the tee plus approach) in every event in 2026! If that continues, I expect Scott to make yet another cut this week.

J.J. Spaun was highlighted in the longshots article as he is absolutely stellar right now with his ball-striking, averaging more than 1.4 strokes gained over his last five events. This is the type of play that led him to a U.S. Open win last year.

Made cut bets have a little extra value at the PGA with a top 70 and ties cut this week, compared to 65 and ties in a normal week on Tour. You also have to consider that this 156-player field contains 20 PGA Professionals who are most likely going to miss the cut. I’m willing to back two of the most consistent and best ball-strikers in this field to make the cut this week at +100.

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Alex Smalley: Top 40, +144

Alex Smalley is playing great of late, particularly with his irons. He has finished 21st or better in each of his last four events. During that span, he has gained over 10 strokes on approach. If he maintains that level, I see good value at +144 for him to finish top 40 this week.

Alex Fitzpatrick: Top 40, +148

Similar to Smalley and Spaun, Alex Fitzpatrick was another player profiled in the longshots article, and I absolutely love the +148 price for him to finish top 40 this week. The books are struggling to catch up to what his price should be, as he has had a meteoric rise over the last two months that includes wins at the Indian Open on the DP World Tour and the Zurich Classic on the PGA Tour with his older brother, Matt. He was also in contention on the back nine on Sunday at the Truist Championship en route to a fourth-place finish. Over the last two weeks, he has gained over 16 strokes ball-striking! If he brings any semblance of that elite play this week, he will finish in the top 40.