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May 11, 2026
3 min read

2026 PGA Championship Longshot Picks

Three value players to keep an eye on this week

Last week we teed off 2026 PGA Championship gambling coverage with what it takes to succeed at Aronimink Golf Club. Now, it’s time to take a look at some longshots who could contend at the season’s second major (Odds as of Monday, May 11).

J.J. Spaun 65/1

I don’t understand this high price on J.J. Spaun. How can last year’s U.S. Open champion, who already has a win in 2026, be listed at 65/1? Now yes, he did struggle to start this season, but Spaun has turned the corner over the last few months, highlighted by a win at the Valero Texas Open. He followed that up with top-25 finishes at signature events at Harbour Town and Doral. Over his last 20 rounds, he has averaged over one stroke gained per round on approach. That elite iron play could very well have him in contention for another major.

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Alex Smalley 175/1

Alex Smalley has been red hot of late — especially with his irons — and makes for a great longshot option for a top 20 or top 40 at Aronimink. In his last four starts, he has finished 21st in Houston, 14th at Valero, second at Zurich, and seventh at Doral. During that span, he averaged over one stroke gained per round on approach. If he continues that solid iron play, he could be a great value at the PGA.

Alex Fitzpatrick 100/1

The “other” Fitzpatrick could make for a great deep longshot play, especially in the finishing position markets such as top 20 or top 40. He has been on a tear over the last few months with wins at the Hero Indian Open on the DP World Tour and at the PGA Tour’s Zurich Classic with his brother, Matt. Alex followed up his Zurich win with a ninth-place finish at Doral while gaining nearly eight strokes tee to green, and at last week’s Truist, he gained nearly nine strokes on approach en route to a fourth-place finish. If he keeps that elite ball-striking up, he has a great chance to contend at Aronimink.

Check back on Tuesday for my 2026 PGA Championship Best Bets!

About the author

Paulie

Paulie is Fried Egg Golf's resident gambling expert (not to be confused with PJ Clark, who is our resident PGA Tour Champions gambling expert).

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