Paulie's Picks: 2026 U.S. Open Longshots

We began our gambling coverage of the 2026 U.S. Open with what it takes to succeed at Shinnecock Hills. Now, let’s take a look at a few longshots who fit that mold (odds as of Monday morning, June 15):

J.J. Spaun: 60/1 

Now I get the stigma of trying to repeat as U.S. Open Champion, but 60/1 for how J.J. Spaun is currently playing is just too high and will likely create value in the top 20 and top 40 markets. Spaun is very accurate off the tee and has gained strokes on approach in 11 consecutive events. During this timeframe, he leads the PGA Tour in approach play, gaining more than one stroke per round, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he has seven top-25 finishes in those 11 events. I fully expect him to have a similar result this week, which would make him an enticing top 20 or top 40 bet.

Kristoffer Reitan: 86/1

Over the last two months, Reitan has really made a splash on Tour highlighted by his signature event win at the Truist Championship. He ranks near the top of the field in approach play over the last month and continues to put himself in contention, relying on his elite ball-striking. The market simply has not caught up to how good he actually is. He just finished sixth at the Memorial, which is a great warm-up for Shinnecock as it tests accuracy off the tee and on approach. I will look to target him for a potential top 20 or top 40 wager this week.

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Aaron Rai: 100/1

I don’t think Aaron Rai is getting the respect he deserves after winning the PGA Championship. His game may not be a great fit for many major courses, but Shinnecock fits him perfectly. Rai is one of the most accurate players off the tee and is elite with his irons, and ranks third in the field in approach play over the last 50 rounds. Similar to Spaun, there will likely be value in the top 20 and top 40 markets this week.

Ryan Gerard: 110/1

I’m not sure how you can price a player at 110/1 when he was in the final pairing in his previous two events at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and the Memorial. His success in those events was predicated on elite iron play as he gained 10 strokes on approach over those eight rounds. 

Jackson Koivun: 150/1

Is Jackson Koivun going to win the U.S. Open in his last event as an amateur? Very unlikely. But if his odds stay this high, that will likely mean we will see some value on a top 40 or make the cut wager. Let’s not forget that Koivun has finished 11th or better in each of his four PGA Tour starts over the last year. During that same timeframe, he has absolutely dominated college golf. Koivun is destined for greatness and I would expect him to be top 20 in the world in the next 12 months. This is a great buy-low spot for him. 

Check back on Tuesday for my Best Bets article and read more of Fried Egg Golf’s 2026 U.S. Open coverage here.