Paulie's Picks: 2026 U.S. Open Best Bets

We have previewed what it takes to succeed at Shinnecock Hills and looked at the longshots we like for the 2026 U.S. Open. Now it’s time to dig into a few of the best bets for the week.

Xander Schauffele: Top 20, -104

Xander Schauffele’s U.S. Open record is absolutely insane. He has played his home open nine times, has finished in the top 10 seven times, and his worst finish is 14th. Xander is a very patient player who doesn’t really have any holes in his game. Every year he lingers near the front page of the leaderboard, racking up pars and avoiding mental mistakes that others seem to always make. I don’t expect any different this week at Shinnecock Hills. Schauffele’s game was in a bit of a rut in 2025 while managing an injury, but he still managed to finish 12th at Oakmont. This year he is playing much better and closer to his peak form that saw him win two majors in 2024. He has finished inside the top 20 in seven of his last ten events. Look for Schauffele to make it a perfect 10/10 in top 20 finishes at the U.S. Open.

Justin Rose to Miss the Cut, +163

Over his 12 starts this season, Justin Rose has been Jekyll and Hyde with five top 13 finishes and some not-so-great results. In those other seven events, Rose has either missed the cut or finished outside the top 35 in limited-field signature events. There isn’t much of a middle ground for Rose as he either contends or doesn’t have it for the week. We have seen similar results for Rose in majors over the last few years, as well. Since 2020, he has played 24 majors and finished 16th or better in exactly half of them. However, he has missed the cut nine of the 12 times he didn’t finish in the top 16. Most importantly, his record at the U.S. Open since 2020 has been putrid. He has five missed cuts and a 37th-place finish. The U.S. Open cut is also smaller than a normal week on Tour, with only 60 players and ties compared to 65 and ties in a standard week. We add this together and it looks like Rose is, at best, a coin flip to make the cut (and potentially worse). That means there is value for us to bet Rose to miss the cut at +163.

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Updated Best Bets to Make for Longshot Players

• J.J. Spaun: Top 40, -134
• Kristoffer Reitan: Top 40, +110
• Aaron Rai: Top 40, +114
• Ryan Gerard: Top 40, +118
• Jackson Koivun: Make the Cut, -122