Paulie's Picks: 2025 Open Championship Preview

The 2025 Open Championship is being held at Royal Portrush, which last held an Open in 2019, where Shane Lowry emerged victorious. We saw a dominant performance from Lowry, who finished at 15 under when only nine other players finished within 11 shots. If we look at the top 10 from 2019 – Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Lee Westwood, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Robert MacIntyre, and Patrick Reed – we see a lot of ball-strikers and not a lot of bombers or players who rely solely on short game to succeed. There is no replacement for solid drives and iron play at Portrush. Of the top six players in the OWGR in 2019, Koepka was the only player to finish 19th or better. That’s something you don’t often see in majors.

Royal Portrush is a great test for a major. If you strike it well, you can score low, but if you are struggling, the bogeys and others can add up fast. You will see a large discrepancy in scoring, which is different than many other Open rota courses. Portrush will identify the best player in the field by week’s end as the course simply rewards good play and punishes errant shots. For example, the first hole has out-of-bounds stakes on both sides of the fairway, which creates an uncomfortable first tee shot (just ask Rory McIlroy).

As chronicled in the video preview by Andy Johnson and Brendan Porath, Royal Portrush is not your typical links that plays out and back. Every hole seemingly goes in a different direction, and the dunes make it very difficult for players to gauge and adjust for wind. Emphasis is placed on controlling the golf ball off the tee to avoid the bunkers and high grass. Approach shots have a bit more importance at Portrush than other Open venues because there are so many false fronts and runoffs, which will make getting up and down very challenging. Compare that to other Open courses, such as St. Andrews, which allow for fairly easy up and downs when players miss the green. At Portrush, you might be five feet below the level of the green trying to save par, which presents a different test that many players are not accustomed to. You will see players using anything from putter and lob wedge to 7-iron and hybrid to try and get home from these difficult areas. If you find yourself frequently in these spots, you simply won’t be in contention.

So what does this mean for 2025? I see this as a perfect setup for players who are elite with their irons and above average in accuracy off the tee. This leads me towards players of the mold of Collin Morikawa or Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler may win his first Open as this is arguably the biggest ball-striking test of any Open venue. His accuracy off the tee, combined with his elite iron play, should allow him to pick apart the course and avoid the difficult up and downs around the greens and the big numbers lurking on every hole.

With that being said, I wouldn’t make any bets on players until a few days before the Championship when we have a better understanding of the weather forecast and tee times. At the Open Championship, all players go off the first tee and the weather can change in a heartbeat. We have seen multiple years where there have been three-, four-, or five-shot advantages purely based on the tee time draw. So before investing in any players, I suggest waiting for some more information.

On Saturday I’ll share some longshots that could surprise this week, and on Tuesday I’ll release my best bets (once we have clarity on any potential weather/tee time advantages).