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May 16, 2026
5 min read

A Wide-Open Sunday Awaits at 2026 PGA Championship

It's all up for grabs at Aronimink

With 18 holes to play, the 2026 PGA Championship is anyone’s ball game.

Alex Smalley holds a two-shot lead following a remarkable rebound on Saturday, playing his final 10 holes 5-under par after stumbling out of the gates. During Saturday’s round, 13 different players held at least a share of the lead throughout the day.

Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele took advantage of favorable scoring conditions early on Saturday, posting a pair of 4-under 66s to pull within three entering the final round. Sitting between that duo and Smalley is a group of five at 4 under, headlined by Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg, both firmly in position to chase down Smalley and seize control of the championship.

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP HUB: Course insights, tournament coverage, and more from Aronimink

As Smalley — who has compiled a solid start to his fifth year on Tour — sleeps on his first 54-hole lead and attempts to win the first event of his professional career, 30 players sit within five strokes of his lead, the most in a major since the 2001 Open Championship.

“My PGA Tour career isn't necessarily very long at this point, but I've never seen anything like it,” Ludvig Aberg, T-2, said after a 2-under 68 on Saturday. “It's very tight.”

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Setup discourse and scrutiny of hole locations muting players’ abilities to separate from the field dominated much of the early-tournament conversation, but the leaderboard remains dense despite Saturday’s friendlier, slightly more accessible hole locations. Multiple variables have contributed to the compression at the top of the board, but it seems as though putts at Aronimink — with much more slope than players regularly see on Tour, and putts frequently breaking in multiple directions — are so difficult to hole that players must putt cautiously from both short range and long range, making birdies especially difficult to come by.

Lost amid all the discussion surrounding hole locations is another crucial factor: wide misses off the tee at Aronimink tend to avoid a much more significant penalty than narrow misses, frequently finding trampled lies from spectators rather than a penalty hazard or a forced layup, further reducing scoring variance.

Screenshot 2026-05-16 at 6.54.49 PM

Parsing out precisely why so many names lurk near the top of the leaderboard is a fun, worthwhile analysis, but none of that will matter to the player who leaves Philadelphia with the Wanamaker Trophy.

“The great thing about all the golf courses we play, no matter where it is, whatever major championship we're playing, if you're hitting the ball well and you're putting well, you're going to be able to handle anything,” Patrick Reed, T-7, said after Saturday’s round. “We're the best players in the world, so when they throw a really hard challenge at us, that's when the top players are going to show up.”

“Credit to the PGA for the setup,” added Rahm. “They found some incredibly hard pin locations out there. Usually when we're practicing, we put our disks out, and there's definitely quite a few that I would have told Adam, ‘Man, there's no way they're going to put a pin there,’ and they did…As hard as it is to play, the challenge can also be kind of fun if you do well. That's probably the reason why the leaderboard is so bunched up and it's going to be such a good Sunday tomorrow.”

Perhaps embracing the setup is a beneficial headspace for players to occupy.

As the driving range empties on Sunday afternoon, multi-major winners and unproven quantities alike will head to the first tee, hopeful for a chance to etch their names into the history books. The only certainty on this major championship Sunday is uncertainty — and likely a few nervy three-putts under pressure.

Tee times are official. A warm, breezy Philadelphia air awaits in the forecast. And the stage is set for a historically up-for-grabs major championship Sunday at Aronimink.

About the author

Joseph LaMagna

I grew up playing golf competitively and caddied for ten years. I've also always enjoyed - usually responsibly - betting on sports. These worlds collided when I went to college, where I spent an absurd amount of time watching PGA Tour Live and building models to predict golf.

When I heard Andy on a podcast for the first time, I immediately knew I'd found a voice I wanted to follow. The intersection between design and strategy captivated me, and I've consumed just about every piece of Fried Egg Golf content since then. While I was finishing up my studies at UT-Austin, I worked for 15th Club (now 21st Club), a company that does data consulting for professional golfers. Upon graduation, I started Optimal Approach Golf, which provides data and strategy recommendations to professional and high-level amateur golfers. I've been full-time with Fried Egg Golf since January of 2024.

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