Paulie’s Picks: 2023 Genesis Invitational

This week the PGA Tour heads back to California for the Genesis Invitational hosted at famed Riviera. This is a second straight designated event so we will see all the top players shining in Los Angeles, including Tiger Woods. Riviera is a course where you can’t fake it. Every part of your game will be tested, which is why so many players love the venue and tournament. The biggest predictor of success is approach play, especially from 150 to 200 yards. Let’s take a look at a few players who fit that bill:

Tony Finau $9,500

Finau is the top-ranked player in my model as he comes in at second in approach from 150 to 200 yards, seventh in approach overall, and falls inside the top 20 off the tee, in driving distance, and in birdies. Finau has elevated his game over the last 12 months and has the chance to join the very top tier of players with another win or two. He has finished runner up twice in the last five years here, including a playoff loss to Max Homa. The $9,500 price is very fair for a player with as much consistency and upside as anyone in the field.

Patrick Cantlay $9,000

This is a great buy-low spot off the missed cut last week. Cantlay now heads to a course that he is familiar with dating back to his college days. It suits his game perfectly as he is above average in every category needed to succeed at Riviera. So it comes as no surprise that he has finished 33rd or better in each of the last five years, including four top-17 finishes. The $9,000 price is a great one for a player who has finished in the top ten in 16 of his last 41 events.

Shane Lowry $7,400

Lowry is another player who is in a great buy-low spot. He ranks 12th overall in my data model for the week. He ranks in the top ten in approach overall and from 150 to 200 yards. His grind-it-out mentality is perfect for Riviera, as scoring will never be super low. How often can you get the 22nd ranked player in the world at $7,400 on a course that fits him well?

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