Paulie’s Picks: 2023 Honda Classic

This week the PGA Tour makes the cross country trek from California’s Riviera to Florida for the Honda Classic at PGA National. The two courses over these last two weeks could not be more aesthetically different, yet both favor players who can strategically navigate their way around the layout and rely on a solid mid-iron game (specifically 175-200 yards this week). PGA National features water on what seems like every hole and punishes players who are not fully in control of their golf ball. Let’s take a look at three players to roster if we want to win one of those big tournaments on DraftKings this week:

Shane Lowry $10,400

Lowry returns to this event looking for revenge after his narrow miss with victory last year. This course is perfect for Lowry so it comes as no surprise that he is the top-ranked player in my data model for this week. He ranks first in approach overall and is in the top 13 for approach from 175-200 yards, off the tee, driving accuracy, and birdies. Lowry is an absolute grinder who excels on difficult courses in tough scoring conditions. That is exactly what we expect at Honda.

Davis Riley $7,400

Riley has been in a funk of late but it occurred out on the west coast and now he heads back to the more familiar bermuda grass in Florida. This creates a great buy-low spot for a player who is waiting to break through on the PGA Tour. He ranks seventh in approach overall and third from 175-200 yards. When you combine that with his above-average off-the-tee game and birdie rate, $7,400 makes for a great upside play.

Callum Tarren $7,100

Along similar lines to Riley, Tarren has shown flashes of brilliance but some very inconsistent results. He has three top-seven finishes on the PGA Tour in the last eight months but also nine missed cuts. Yes, he is volatile but makes for a great tournament play this week on DraftKings at a price of $7,100. This is a very weak field and Tarren’s game fits this course extremely well. He ranks fifth overall in my data model for the week as he ranks second in approach from 175-200 yards and is top 30 in putting, approach, off the tee, and birdies. He finished 30th last year and I would not be surprised to see a similar result this year.

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