Paulie’s Picks: John Deere Classic

We are on a bit of a hot streak here with Wyndham Clark winning the U.S. Open and Rickie Fowler coming through for us last week in Detroit. Let’s keep it going as the PGA Tour heads to yet another birdie fest at the John Deere Classic, held once again at TPC Deere Run.

In each of the last 13 editions, the winner was at least at 18-under par. I expect a winning score this week in the low 20s as conditions will be ripe for scoring. Besides making birdies, what does it take to succeed at TPC Deere Run? Well, this might sound overly simplistic, but players will need to succeed with approach shots and putting. These two metrics account for over 70 percent of strokes gained historically among top finishers at this event, which is one of the highest marks of any event on Tour. The distribution of yardage of approach shots is almost right on Tour average in every yardage bucket.

So let’s keep it simple this week and just look at overall approach play and putting. Some options:

Eric Cole $9,700

People are going to see this high price tag and automatically skip over Cole. But if you dig into his current form and the metrics, this price is actually very valuable. He is the only player in the field to rank top 10 in approach and putting, the two key stats to success historically at TPC Deere Run. This is a very weak field this year and Cole has proven himself time and again that he can compete with the best on Tour. The last 12 times he has made the cut, he has finished inside the top 40. As I expect this to be another birdie fest, it fits right into the hands of Cole, who leads the field in birdie rate. This very well could be the week for Cole’s first win on the PGA Tour.

Nick Taylor $8,200

We are getting an insanely low price on Taylor this week, it seems based solely off of his history at this event. He has missed the cut in four of seven appearances and never finished better than 28th. However, this course is a great fit for Taylor’s current game and he is having the best year of his career. Taylor is one of only four players to rank top 20 in approach and putting. He also ranks top five in birdie rate, which bodes well for this birdie fest. He is the 45th ranked player in the world and that makes him the seventh highest ranked player in this field. Yet he is ranked 21st in DraftKings pricing. Taylor already has four top-10 finishes in 2023, including a win a few weeks back at the Canadian Open. He makes for a great upside play in DraftKings tournaments.

Chez Reavie $7,700

Reavie is one of only four players to rank inside the top 20 in both approach and putting. This has led to very consistent results as he has made the cut in nine of his last 10 events. Over his last three events, his irons have been on fire, gaining a combined 17 strokes on approach!!! If the solid iron play continues, I expect him to be in contention this week and more than pay off his cheap $7,700 salary.