Paulie’s Picks: 2023 Mexico Open

This week’s Korn Ferry PGA Tour event is the Mexico Open at Vidanta. This is the second year of this event and once again we have a lackluster field, led by Jon Rahm and Tony Finau. The next highest ranked player in the world is Alex Noren (sorry, Alex), who is 49th in the OWGR. Whenever we have a weak field like this, you will often see high variance in results. You will most likely see some surprising names in the top 10 come Sunday. So how do we go about picking fantasy players this week? Well, luckily we have data from last year’s event that tells us two things: you need to drive the ball long and be above average with mid to long irons (175-plus yards). Let’s take a look at a few players (not named Rahm or Finau) to target this week:

Will Gordon $7,900

Gordon ranks top 10 in both driving distance and approach from beyond 175 yards. This results in a ranking as the eighth best player overall in my data model this week. I realize Gordon hasn’t played that great in 2023, but he showed his upside in the fall, which had fields of similar strength to this. I expect Gordon to make the cut this week and help our DraftKings score with his top-20 birdie rate.

Luke List $7,800

List has been in a bit of a slump so far in 2023, missing the cut in six of the last nine events. But in a field like this, I’m willing to bet on long term form and course fit. List is the 10th highest ranked player in the world in this field, which puts him about $1,200 cheaper than expected. His biggest two strengths are driving distance and long iron play. He ranks fifth in driving distance and seventh in approach from 200-plus yards.

Brent Grant $6,800

Grant is an unknown to all but the diehard golf fan. Yes, I know he has missed the cut in nine out of 15 starts this season. But similar to List, we have a great course fit among a much weaker than normal field. Grant’s best finish of the season was eighth at Punta Cana. He also finished top 40 at Puerto Rico and Bermuda, both of which had similar field strength to this week. He ranks top 20 in driving distance and top 10 in approach from beyond 175 yards. He makes for a great low-cost option as I believe he has a great chance to finish top 40 again.

Paulie’s 2022 picks for the Mexico Open