Paulie’s Picks: 2021 BMW Championship

For this week’s BMW Championship, the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the PGA Tour heads to Caves Valley Golf Club outside of Baltimore.

A first-time host, Caves Valley is a par 72 that stretches to over 7,500 yards. Driving distance will be of utmost importance, as all four par 5s are between 568 and 599 yards. While long hitters will likely be able to reach them, short hitters will struggle to do so. Also, the four par 3s are all between 220 and 227 yards, so players will be hitting long irons into all of them on most days. Of the ten par 4s, three may be drivable, one is mid-length, and the other six are over 450 yards. Since the fairways are slightly wider than tour average, bombers will have an edge on the reachable and long par 4s in particular.

The BMW Championship is a no-cut event with only 70 players. Because everyone in the field is guaranteed four rounds, we should target players with high birdie rates in DraftKings. A player who makes a lot of birdies but finishes 30th may outscore someone who finishes 20th.

The ideal golfer for DraftKings play this week will be a long hitter who excels in shots over 200 yards and has an above-average birdie rate. Here are a couple of players who fit those criteria:

DraftKings

Bryson DeChambeau $9,300

I’m going to keep riding the Bryson train because he keeps getting priced low in spite of his massive upside. Granted, he has played some messy golf lately, but he’s making so many birdies that his DraftKings scores tend to be higher than players who finish in the same position. Getting a price like $9,300 on him feels like a gift to me. DeChambeau is top seven in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, driving distance, dirdies, proximity from 200+ yards, and scoring on 200+-yard par 3s. Plus, he has made a whopping 49 birdies and one eagle in his past two events.

Charley Hoffman $7,000

Hoffman is flying under the radar this week. He is top 13 in approach, birdies, driving distance, and proximity from 200+ yards. In the past ten months, he has missed only two cuts, so he fits the profile of someone who could finish 30th this week while ranking 20th in DraftKings points because of a high birdie rate.

One-and-Done

With the season almost coming to an end, you’re probably down to only a few players you could use for the BMW Championship. Rather than give generalized tips here, I welcome you to DM me on Twitter @friedeggpaulie. I’d be glad to give you some guidance based on the players you have left.