Paulie’s Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Well, that was another great event at TPC Scottsdale. For those of you who followed last week’s advice, congrats on your Matsuyama victory in your One and Done league. For those of you on Draftkings, mediocre success should have been had with all players listed making the cut with high finishes from Kuchar and Steele. Our longshot of the week, Grayson Murray, had a respectable 36th place finish.

This week, we head to Pebble Beach which is always a unique event. Pros will be paired with amateurs and play a different course each of the first three days before a 54 hole cut to only 60 players. Here are some players to focus on:

DraftKings

Shane Lowry $7,000

In his last 8 worldwide starts, Lowry has finished in in the top 42 (including 16th at the WM Open and 33rd at the Farmers). In his two starts at this event, he has finished 21st and 41st. Lowry is a safe bet to make the cut and make some birdies which is hard to find around the $7,000 salary range.

Jim Furyk $7,500

This may be one of the lowest prices I have ever seen Furyk. He has finished in the top 40 in 6 of his last 7 starts at Pebble. He hasn’t played since finishing 6th at the RSM Classic in the fall. He should be rested and ready to contend. One interesting note is that his caddy, Fluff Cowan, caddied in this event last year even though Furyk was out with an injury. Who did he caddy for you may ask? He caddied for Sung Kang who had a 17th place finish highlighted by a course record 60 in the second round at Monterey Peninsula CC. You might also remember another player that Fluff caddied for that had success at Pebble (Tiger Woods).

Justin Rose $9,200

Rose finished 6th in his debut at this event last year. His last two PGA Tour starts resulted in finishes of 2nd and 4th (Sony and Farmers). He will be a popular play this week since he is very cheap in comparison to the top 3 (Spieth, Day and DJ).

One and Done:

Hopefully, you found the winner’s circle last week with Matsuyama. This week, I am torn between a few players. Here are three choices to consider:

Justin Rose

See above. This is arguably one of the few spots you might use Rose this year (Memorial being the other that comes to mind). Tough decision ahead in whether to burn him this early in the year.

Brandt Snedeker

If you didn’t use him at Torrey, this is the place to use him as he won here in 2013 and 2015.

Phil Mickelson

Mickelson has a love affair with Pebble as he has played this event nearly every year. He has 5 top tens in the last 7 years here. His three starts this year resulted in 21st, 14th and 16th (Career Builder, Farmers and WM Open). The only thing to consider here is if you think he is better suited at another tournament down the road (such as Riviera next week).

Longshot: Sung Kang 160-1

As mentioned in the Furyk section above, Kang finished 17th here a year ago while shooting a course record 60 at Monterey Peninsula CC. I’m banking on the fact that he learned a lot from Fluff Cowan in terms of course strategy at these courses. Kang is playing well as evidenced by his 12th place finish last week. At 160-1, he’s definitely worth the risk.