Paulie’s Picks: 2019 Valspar Championship

This week, the Tour heads to the Copperhead course at Innisbrook, a great test of a player’s physical and mental game. The course plays extremely long due to many par 4s requiring layups off the tee. Players who excel from 175-225 yards have an extremely large advantage this week. You can expect a player to have anywhere from five to nine approach shots from that distance. We also typically see the winds pick up in the afternoons and the greens firm up throughout the week, so patience and grinding out pars will help keep players in contention. It’s refreshing to see a course where bomb and gouge isn’t favored.

DraftKings

Sergio Garcia $10,100

If you plan on pivoting off of DJ this week, Garcia is a very good option. He is an elite iron player who plays very well on difficult tree-lined courses. In his last four events, he has gained 22 shots on approach!! He also has finished 9th or better in 8 of his last 11 events worldwide. He finished 4th here a year ago even though he lost nearly 3 shots putting.

Jason Kokrak $8,600

Kokrak’s great ball striking this year has led him to a very consistent season. He has finished in the top 20 in five of his last seven starts, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the Open Championship. Kokrak fits this course great as he is an excellent iron player (especially mid or long irons). He has gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach in each of his last five events.

One-and Done

Dustin Johnson

If you are trailing in your league by a large amount and need to make a move, DJ is the play this week. Most people have either used him already or will save him for a major. In this weak field, he is a 5/1 massive favorite. DJ has been hitting the ball tremendously the last few events. The last four times he has gained 10+ strokes tee to green in an event, he has followed that up with a top 5 in his next event. He gained 11 strokes tee to green at the Players. I think he adds another top 5 this week.

Jim Furyk

If you are looking to just rack up another top 20 and not burn a stud, Furyk is a great choice. Furyk finished runner-up last week and has finished 7th or better in 4 of his last 8 appearances at Innisbrook (including a win in 2010).