Paulie’s Picks: 2025 The Sentry at Kapalua

I can’t believe the 2025 PGA Tour season is already here. Once again, we start the year at Kapalua with many players coming in off an extended break. We typically see a lot of variance in results. As such, it’s a bit difficult to bet on top 10s or top 20s. So this week, I see a lot more value in head-to-head matchups at The Sentry. Let’s take a look at three matchups to target:

Sungjae Im -115 over Hideki Matsuyama

Most years Hideki Matsuyama starts slow and struggles mightily at Kapalua. Here’s how he’s fared the last four years:

• 2024: 58th out of 59
• 2023: 21st out of 38
• 2022: 13th out of 38
• 2021: T-41st out of 42

Sungjae Im has beaten Matsuyama each of the last four years finishing no worse than 13th. Now yes, if you consider long-term form, these players are about even. But looking at how they start the year here each year, I have to favor Im heavily. Let’s put our money on Im to beat Hideki at -115 odds.

Max Greyserman -115 over Maverick McNealy

Unless you are a golf nut or follow the PGA Tour closely, you don’t know who Max Greyserman is. Well, he is the 34th-ranked player in the world and has been on a heater over the last six months. Since the U.S. Open, he has played 11 events and hasn’t finished worse than 33rd. During that time he finished runner-up at the 3M Open, Wyndham Championship, and Zozo Championship. I feel he still is being undervalued a bit in the market.

Maverick McNealy finally broke through with his maiden victory at the RSM Classic. That has vaulted him up in terms of how sportsbooks are valuing him. Over the last six months, he has played 13 events and has six top-17 finishes. So his upside is very similar to Greyserman. However, his consistency is not. In his other seven starts, McNealy didn’t finish better than 44th and failed to play all four rounds in five of those events.

When I look at head-to-head matchups, I often find value in consistent players (like Greyserman) over inconsistent players (like McNealy). I will gladly take Greyserman at -115 to beat McNealy especially considering that neither player has played this event before.

Akshay Bhatia +100 over Robert MacIntyre

Akshay Bhatia has a sizable edge on Robert MacIntyre this week. First off, we have seen rookies at this event struggle due to the importance of course knowledge. Bhatia finished 14th last year while MacIntyre is making his debut. Kapalua rewards stellar wedge play. MacIntyre ranks near dead last in the field in that category while Bhatia is above average. I will gladly put my money on Bhatia at coinflip odds of +100 this week.

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