Tiering the 2026 Masters Contenders

In his pre-tournament press conference, 2018 Masters champion Patrick Reed said that historically, only five to seven guys could win the Masters, but now it’s more like 10-12. Below, I’ve tiered the top Masters contenders for this year as I see it. Fifteen names made my list. 

Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win the tournament, and yes, I believe he has the best chance of winning. But my pick to win the 2026 Masters is Rory McIlroy. Much is made of the difficulty of winning back-to-back green jackets, but I don’t see any reason McIlroy cannot win another this year. The mental burden of finally winning last year should clear some anxiety and tension in his head. And, frankly, McIlroy is the only player in the field with both immense power and the skill to execute every shot in the bag that Augusta National demands. I’ve watched some of Rory’s practice rounds this week. His recently tweaked back seems fine, and his touch on and around the greens is the best I’ve seen of anybody in the field. Watching McIlroy consistently lag putts from treacherous locations to inside a foot inspires confidence in the most complete player in the world. Most years, Scheffler checks all of the boxes McIlroy checks. I’m just a little skeptical of the current state of Scheffler’s game, given what we’ve seen so far this year and a recent childbirth, which could impact prep. 

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If my life depended on a player making a 10-footer at Augusta National, I would select Justin Rose. After his dominant seven-shot win at Torrey Pines in February, it seemed like Rose was going to be a popular pick at Augusta, given his history here, including a near-win last year. Two months later and a couple missed cuts later, there appears to be less smoke around Rose. I believe in Rose’s ability to muster his best golf for the tournaments that matter most to him. He could flame out, but he also is on the short list of players who can legitimately win this golf tournament if he gets in the mix. 

I anticipate the biggest blowback to my set of contenders is the omission of Brooks Koepka. His iron play has been encouraging this season, but he is yet to contend in a tournament. Between a poor putter and an inconsistent driver, there are too many holes in Koepka’s game for me to believe he will win this year’s Masters. I don’t expect him to be a factor in this tournament.