Paulie’s Picks for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Avenel

This week the PGA Tour makes the trek from Mexico to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, a metro DC-area venue that last hosted a Tour event in 2018 (Quicken Loans National). This course is fairly easy to handicap as ball striking reigns supreme. In order to succeed, a player will need to hit the ball well both off the tee and on approach (higher emphasis on 175-200 yards). A player does not need to excel in putting or around-the-green game to contend here. Let’s take a look at a few undervalued players.

Gary Woodland $9,100

Woodland gained eight strokes combined off the tee and approach last week in Mexico but had a balky putter (-3.4 strokes putting) en route to a 24th place finish. He is the second overall ranked player in my model as he ranks seventh in approach and well above average in every other metric. He has finished 24th or better in five of his last seven starts (only bad starts were Masters and Players but those are courses that don’t fit his game well). The $9,100 price seems like a steal for a player with his consistency and the upside to contend.

Cameron Young $8,000

I have no clue why his price is so low. He has played amazingly well the last few months and is going way under the radar. He has finished top 40 in eight of his last 10 events (only two he didn’t were Masters and Players Championship). He is the eighth ranked player in my model as he ranks second off the tee and first in birdies. $8,000 is a great price for a player likely to finish top 40 once again, while racking up plenty of birdies.

Sepp Straka $7,600

Straka is the 13th overall ranked player in my model as he ranks second from 175-200 yards and sixth in birdies. He has made the cut in 10 of 11 events in 2022, including 15th or better finishes in four of his last seven events. Explain to me how he is only $7,600?