Paulie's Picks: 2025 Open Championship Longshots

In the betting preview article ahead of the 2025 Open Championship, I talked about the skillset needed to succeed at Royal Portrush: above-average accuracy off the tee and elite irons. Let’s take a look at the top players in this field that fit this criteria:

Only 12 players rank in the top 30 in accuracy off the tee and approach in my metrics:

• Scottie Scheffler (5/1)
• Collin Morikawa (25/1)
• Tommy Fleetwood (25/1)
• Shane Lowry (28/1)
• Russell Henley (50/1)
• Sepp Straka (65/1)
• *Corey Conners (70/1) 
• J.J. Spaun (80/1)
• Daniel Berger (110/1)
• Aaron Rai (110/1)
• Nick Taylor (170/1)
• Lucas Glover (250/1)

*Conners is recovering from a wrist injury

So if we are looking to target longshots this week, whether for an outright win, a top 20, or as part of an office pool, it makes sense to start with some of the guys on this list. Let’s take a more in-depth look at a few players:

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Sepp Straka: 65/1 to win

Sepp Straka finished runner-up in 2023 to Brian Harman, so he does have some Open success. It’s kind of crazy that the No. 10 player in the world, who already has two wins and another two top fives in signature events this year, is this far down the odds board this week. I would expect this number to be near 45/1 come Thursday.

J.J. Spaun: 80/1 to win

J.J. Spaun already has four top-three finishes this season, including the U.S. Open victory and a playoff loss at the Players. As a top 20 player in whatever ranking system you look at, it seems like we are getting an elevated price based on the fact that this will be his first Open Championship. This is another player who I expect to see a drop in price down to 60/1 by the start of the championship.

Nick Taylor: 170/1 to win

Nick Taylor has a win in each of the last three years (2025 Sony, 2024 WM Open, 2023 Canadian Open). He is not afraid of the big moment and is one of the few deep longshots who I think could actually win if in contention come Sunday. His game has been trending up as of late as he has finished 23rd or better in each of his last four starts.