Paulie’s Picks: 2017 John Deere Classic

This week, the Tour heads to the John Deere. Expect a birdie fest before some players hop across the pond for the Open Championship. Once again, we have a fairly weak field which creates more variance in results as without the consistency of the top studs in the world. It will be an interesting dynamic for all formats this week.

DraftKings

If you are looking to stack your lineups with some of the top players you will need to add in a few value plays. Here are some options:

Chad Campbell $7,600

In his last nine appearances at the Deere, he has made every cut and had eight top 36 finishes. Campbell has been heating up of late as he has recorded top 10s in two of his last three starts. At $7,600, he will provide some needed salary relief while still racking up another top 36 finish.

Ben Martin $8,300

Martin, the 2016 runner up, is finding his form just in time for this year’s event. He has made seven straight cuts and finished fifth two weeks ago at the Quicken Loans and was in contention heading into last weekend before faltering.

Scott Brown $7,000 (90-1 to win, 7-1 top 10)

This venue suits Brown’s eye, evidenced by top 22 finishes in four of his last five appearances. He hasn’t been playing great of late which has surpressed his odds and price. I like his value to finish in the top 10 and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the winning lineup on DK.

Sit

Jamie Lovemark $9,300

I expect a TON of people of people to be on Lovemark this week as he has been on a tear of late striking the ball off the tee with both distance and precision. However, when we dig deeper we see that he is still hitting his irons and putting about field average. At a course where iron game and putting are put on display, I think Lovemark will underperform. His best finish in four trips here is 34th which is nothing to write home about. I think he will be owned by 18-22% in tournaments this week. Fade him and move up the leaderboard if he has a subpar performance.

One-and-Done

Steve Stricker

Stricker won this event three consecutive years from 2009-2011 and since has backed that up with another three top 11 finishes. This is arguably the one course you would use him at this year so feel free to not overthink it and play him.

Zach Johnson

Johnson is another horse for a course. He has an astounding six top three finishes here in the last eight years (that’s not a typo). Even though he hasn’t been playing that great lately, he is still worth playing this week.

Longshots:

Kelly Kraft 80-1 (6-1 top 10)

Kraft recorded a fifth place finish here a year ago and also last week at the Greenbrier. Surprisingly he did that while ranking near the bottom of the field in putting. If he can have just an average putter this week, he will be near the top of the board on Sunday.

David Lawrence (odds not currently listed)

David received a last minute sponsor’s invite into this event. He is a Moline, Illinois native and has played this course hundreds of times. He can absolutely fill up the scorecard with birdies. I have been paired with David multiple times when he was an amateur, including the final round of the State Amateur. He can turn the jets on and go on a birdie barrage. Maybe he gets the hometown crowd to rally around him and surprise some people this week.