Paulie’s Picks: 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

After a fun week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch once again plays host and will likely give us another birdie fest. The overall profile of this course is fairly open off the tee with large greens that are easier than the Tour average to putt on, which turns the event into an iron and putting contest. This is very similar to the required skillset at both the Houston Open and Mexico Open. We have a pretty weak field, so that gives us some opportunities to grab some value further down the betting board. Let’s take a look at three longshot bets to play that fit this course perfectly:

Ryan Gerard Top 20 +250

Gerard is an elite iron player and putter as he is the only player in the field who is in the top 10 in both categories. He struggles at times off the tee and around the green, but those areas are minimized this week. He has five top 20s this season, including the Houston and Mexico Opens. In his last four starts, he has three top 20s and a 27th at the RBC Heritage, which isn’t a great fit for his game. +250 seems to be way too large a price in this extremely weak field given Gerard’s skillset.

Alejandro Tosti Top 20 +350

Tosti already has four top 12 finishes this season, also including both the Houston and Mexico Open. His game is in great form right now as he’s gaining a whopping 2.5 strokes tee to green per round over the last month. Tosti is an extremely aggressive player who loves to hit driver on every hole and make as many birdies as possible. That strategy is only successful on a portion of the courses on Tour. Those courses also happen to be where Tosti has had most of his success. TPC Craig Ranch fits that same bill as he will be able to rip driver with plenty of room off most tees. In this field, +350 is a steal for a player who is currently one of the best ball-strikers in the field.

Sami Valimaki Top 20 +360

Valimaki is an unknown to most golf fans, so let me tell you a little bit about his game and why he fits this course perfectly. He drives it the Tour’s average distance but is very erratic, which often causes him issues, but his approach play and putting are both top 20 in this field. His chipping and pitching are near the bottom of the Tour rankings. Valimaki excels when you give him a course that isn’t penal off the tee with large greens so he doesn’t have to chip much. He can just focus on his strengths. That is exactly what we have this week. He comes into this event under the radar, even though he has finished top 20 in each of his last three individual events, highlighted by a fourth-place showing at the Houston Open.