Paulie’s Picks: 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

We are back with yet another PGA Tour signature event. This week, 72 of the world’s best head to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Similar to the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club, there will be a cut to the top 50 players and ties, plus any player within 10 shots of the lead, after 36 holes. 

Year in and year out, Bay Hill presents one of the most difficult non-major examinations for players. You won’t need 25 under to win this event. Historically, we can expect a winning score around 10 under. The course features thick overseeded rough, plenty of water in play off the tee and on approach, and some of the fastest greens on Tour. Bay Hill places an extreme emphasis on mid- to long-irons, especially from 200-plus yards. All four par 3s are 200-plus yards and are some of the hardest on Tour as a group. All four par 5s are reachable (barring heavy wind) with plenty of risk/reward. Elite ball-striking from beyond 200 yards sets up easy birdies on the par 5s and simple pars on the par 3s. That’s pretty much the blueprint to Tiger Woods’ success here for so many years. 

With this being a 72-player field, our betting options are cut down a bit this week, but I see one play of extreme value:

Matthew Fitzpatrick: Top 20, -110

Matthew Fitzpatrick has finished 22nd or better in six of the last seven years at Bay Hill, including four top-10 finishes. Now that alone may get you to back him this week for a top 20, but let me tell you why he is of extreme value this week. Fitz has been struggling on the greens, but he’s hitting the ball the best he ever has in his career.

Over the last two seasons, Fitz ranks 28th in this field in putting. However, he has some of the most dramatic splits I have ever seen comparing performance on Bermuda vs non-Bermuda grass putting surfaces. Of the 71 professionals in the field, he ranks second on Bermuda greens and 53rd on non-Bermuda greens. He has gained strokes putting in each of his last 10 appearances at Bay Hill, gaining at least three strokes in seven of those events.

So far in 2026, Fitzpatrick has struggled on the greens, losing strokes putting in all four events (all on the West Coast on non-Bermuda greens). Yet, he has managed finishes of 63rd, ninth, 14th, and 23rd. In his last three events, he has gained at least 4.5 strokes ball-striking (off the tee plus approach). The only other time he has done that in his career was back in 2022 when he won the U.S. Open.

As mentioned earlier, players must be elite mid- to long-iron players to contend here. Fitzpatrick ranks in the top ten in approach outside 200 yards, so all signs point to success this week. Take Fitzpatrick to finish in the top 20 at -110.

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