Paulie’s Picks: 2026 Genesis Invitational

The Genesis Invitational is back at Riviera Country Club after a one-year hiatus due to the widespread wildfires. A field of 72 players will battle this week, with a cut after 36 holes to the low 50 players, ties, and anyone within 10 shots of the lead. Riviera typically plays firm and fast, but this week will be a bit different with the heavy rains over the last few days. The course will play long and soft, and there likely won’t be enough wind to dry the course out. 

Riviera is a simple yet great golf course. It doesn’t have any water hazards and rewards players who strategically attack the greens based on angles. However, this is a course that heavily rewards distance as the penalty for missing fairways is small, especially with the forecasted conditions. 

Besides driving distance, players will need to be elite from 150-200 yards on approach and above average chipping and pitching around the green. In a normal week on Tour, 36 percent of approach shots come from 150 to 200 yards. Riviera has one of the highest-ever rates at 48 percent from that distance. Around the green, players will face more opportunities to showcase their short-game prowess as more players miss the greens at Riviera than at most other courses on Tour, despite the larger greens. The average PGA Tour event sees players miss 34 percent of greens. At Riviera, that number jumps to 44 percent. Mix that with three reachable par 5s and a drivable 10th and you will see players rely on their chipping and pitching on possibly more than half of their holes.

Given the smaller field and skillset requirements, there was only one clear value bet this week. How many players in this field rank in the top 20 percent from 150 to 200 yards on approach, are in the top 40 percent of driving distance, and are above average both around the green and putting? Two. Scottie Scheffler is one. The other? 

Patrick Cantlay: Top 20, -104

Patrick Cantlay has finished 17th or better in six of his last seven starts at Riviera, including top-four finishes in his last two appearances. His game has been steady but not spectacular in 2026, which kind of describes Cantlay’s career in a nutshell. He has played three events this year, finishing 14th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, 13th at the American Express, and a missed cut by one shot at the Farmers Insurance Open even though he was 2 under through 36 holes. He now heads to one of his favorite tracks on Tour, one that means a lot to him with his UCLA roots. His game fits the course well, so look for Cantlay to add yet another top 20 at Riv this week.

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