Paulie's Picks: 2026 Truist Championship

Fresh off one of the easiest betting wins of the year with Cameron Young and Scottie Scheffler finishing 1-2 at the Cadillac Championship, we look to add another win this week as the PGA Tour heads to Charlotte. The Truist Championship at Quail Hollow is yet another signature event that features 72 players and no cut. When looking at past results of the Truist, make sure to ignore 2025 as the event was held at Philadelphia Cricket Club with Quail Hollow hosting the PGA Championship.

The course setup for the Truist will be slightly easier than the PGA Championship, as rough height is expected to be lower. Quail Hollow is a long course that places a premium on off-the-tee play, with driver used on 86% of tee shots compared to 69% in a normal week. Even with drivers being hit on most holes, players are still faced with longer-than-normal approach shots into greens. Historically, 59% of approach shots come from beyond 175 yards compared to 45% in a normal week on Tour. So this puts an increased emphasis on both driving and mid- to long-iron play. You have to be elite in those areas to contend, so let’s take a look at who fits that mold:

Xander Schauffele Top 10 (with ties), +110

Xander Schauffele has finished third, fourth, ninth, and 12th in his last four starts. During that timeframe, he has gained a ridiculous 2.1 strokes per round ball-striking (off the tee plus approach). When was the last time he hit that mark over a four-event timeframe? Never.

Xander’s last two appearances in the Truist at Quail Hollow resulted in runner-up finishes. That shouldn’t come as a surprise as the course plays to the strengths of Xander’s game. Sign me up for Xander this week. To make things even sweeter for our bet, we don’t have Scheffler in the field, who would have been a certainty to take one of the spots in the top 10. We also have the potential for a letdown spot for Rory McIlroy (his first start since the Masters) and Cameron Young (his first start after a dominant win at Doral). All signs point to valuing Xander Schauffele this week to finish top 10 (with ties) at +110.