Paulie's Picks: 2025 Truist Championship

With Quail Hollow hosting the PGA Championship next week, the Truist Championship is being held at Philadelphia Cricket Club in its first year under a new title sponsor. Since we don’t have any historical strokes gained data from past events at this course, it makes it a bit more difficult to handicap. 

In this 72-player field, there are only five players who rank in the top 20 in both Strokes Gained Approach and Off-the-Tee: Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, and Keegan Bradley. With McIlroy and Morikawa at the top of the betting market, we expect to see them in this list. Let’s dig into the other three players:

Patrick Cantlay Top 20 -125

Cantlay hasn’t finished outside the top 36 in an event in the last 11 months. That elite consistency, paired with above-average off the tee and approach play, provides us some value this week. 

Daniel Berger Top 20 +130

Berger has been a model of consistency as well this season, finishing inside the top 30 in each of his last eight events. Berger’s game is predicated on accuracy off the tee to position himself for success with his elite approach game. That sums up what is needed to score at Philadelphia Cricket Club. Berger could be a very sneaky pick this week as he looks to make the U.S. Ryder Cup team. 

Keegan Bradley Top 20 +140

Bradley has earned solid but not spectacular results so far in 2025. His best finishes are fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and sixth at the Sony Open. His ball-striking metrics in 2025 are right in line with where they were for his solid 2024 season, but he has really struggled with the putter in 2025. Over the last 14 years, Bradley has lost more than five strokes putting in a tournament 21 times. However, three of those have occurred already in 2025, which have cost him some really good results. For example, in his last start at the RBC Heritage, he finished 18th but lost 5.2 strokes putting. If he putted at field average, he would have finished third and we likely would not be getting a price anywhere close to +140 this week for a top 20. Bradley now heads to the northeast, where his putting splits are insane compared to the Bermuda greens he sees in the south. He moves from a bottom 25th percentile putter on Bermuda to an above-average putter on Bentgrass. Strong ball-striking paired with a putting performance near the field average should put Bradley inside the top 20 for us.