Paulie's Picks: 2026 Valero Texas Open

The PGA Tour stays in Texas for one more week for the Valero Texas Open. The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio can play as one of the hardest on Tour if winds blow — as shown by Brian Harman winning at 9 under last year — but can yield plenty of birdies if the wind is nonexistent. It’s a very simple examination. If you strike the ball well, you can score. If you are struggling with your ball-striking, especially with irons, then you will eventually be exposed over the course of 72 holes. Iron play reigns supreme at TPC San Antonio, where seven of the last eight winners have gained at least six shots on approach. 

How is the winner able to gain so many strokes on approach year after year? The greens are very firm, and when combined with wind, top-tier iron players differentiate themselves more easily. The greens in regulation rate here is only 58%, which is well below Tour average. There is a large difference between the haves and have-nots in terms of elite approach play at TPC San Antonio.

When looking at approach play most weeks, we are able to target certain yardage buckets that may have increased usage and importance. However, at TPC San Antonio, the shot distribution is fairly close to the Tour average in every yardage bucket, so the metric to focus on this week is the standard Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. I know that may sound simple, but the other metrics do not have anywhere near the same importance this week. Let’s take a look at two players who are striking their irons well:

Sudarshan Yellamaraju: Top 40, -108

After cashing for us last week, I’m going back to the well again this week. The market simply hasn’t fully captured how good Sudarshan is yet. He has gained strokes on approach in all but one event in 2026 and ranks eighth in this field in approach. Yellamaraju has finished inside the top 40 in each of his last four events, including a fifth place at the Players and a sixth place last week in Houston.

{{inline-article}}

Denny McCarthy: Top 40, -130

When talking about elite iron play, McCarthy isn’t someone you’d expect to consider. Over the course of his career, though, he is right on the Tour average. He relies on his putting to carry him most weeks, and often contends duirng weeks when his irons are firing. Denny has been playing very well of late, finishing 12th last week at the Houston Open following a 26th-place showing at the Valspar Championship. Most of his recent success is due to his approach play, which is some of the best he has ever had. Over his last three events, Denny has gained the most strokes on approach since August 2020. He now heads to a course where he almost earned his maiden victory back in 2024. He has finished inside the top 40 in five of his six appearances at TPC San Antonio.