Paulie's Picks: Betting Favorites for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont

Oakmont Country Club is my favorite U.S. Open venue as it provides the most challenging yet fair test for the best players in the world. Errant shots off the tee are punished by thick rough and bunkers that will often force players to lay up. I’m not sure there is another course in the U.S. where gaining strokes off the tee is more paramount. If you don’t either bomb the ball or hit a ton of fairways, you will have very little chance of succeeding. Longer hitters have an edge this week as they can carry a few extra bunkers off the tee and have a high enough swing speed to get out of the rough, especially from less yardage on many of the par 4s. However, you still need to find fairways.    

Oakmont will require players to use every club in their bag, work the ball both ways off the tee and on approach, and think strategically on each hole. Despite both par 5s playing over 600 yards, plus two par 3s of 235 and 290 yards, the other 14 holes spread across the 7,400-yard course are not overly long. Players who are patient and plod their way around the course should have a chance to contend. The winning score will likely be near even par.

Now that we have talked about what it will take to win this week, let’s dig into a couple of favorites. The obvious choices are Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and Rory McIlroy, but let’s make the case for two others a little further down the board.

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Xander Schauffele: 22/1

Xander Schauffele has finished 14th or better in all eight of his U.S. Open appearances. He won two majors last year but has gone under the radar in 2025 due to an injury earlier in the year. Schauffele is an above-average driver of the ball in terms of distance and accuracy. He is the poster child for patience, which is why he has played well in this championship. There is a very good chance he will be in contention come Sunday, so 22/1 is a value on Schauffele, a top-five player in the world playing in his best of the four majors. I don’t see how the betting markets are having Rory and Bryson as three times more likely to win. Schauffele should likely be in the 15/1 range this week.

Collin Morikawa: 25/1

You might be surprised by this selection. Collin Morikawa’s game may not fit the U.S. Open often because of the need for distance off the tee. However, Collin has a better chance to contend here than most other U.S. Open venues, as this course requires precise tee shots and approach play. Morikawa ranks 16th off the tee and seventh on approach, which is a great combination for this week. On top of that, he has quietly finished 14th or better in each of the last four U.S. Opens. Similarly to Schauffele, I will gladly take Morikawa at 25/1 as he is a top-five player in the world, and I struggle to see how he can be valued so low.

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