Paulie's Picks: 2025 U.S. Open Best Bets for Oakmont

Now that we have talked about a few favorite and longshot picks for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club, let’s take a look at a few of the best bets to make this week:

Made Cut Parlay: Xander Schauffele and Harris English, +105

Xander Schauffele’s game fits Oakmont and the U.S. Open perfectly. He has finished 14th or better in all eight of his U.S. Open appearances and hasn’t missed a cut since the 2022 Masters. 

Harris English has made the cut in all nine of his U.S. Open starts and this year has finished runner-up at the PGA Championship and 12th at both the Memorial and Masters. He is hitting his driver well right now and will need to make the weekend to accumulate more Ryder Cup points.

Hideki Matsuyama: Top 40, -120

We are getting a slightly reduced price on Hideki Matsuyama after he missed the cut at the PGA Championship and followed that with two subpar starts at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Memorial. It is hard to ignore Matsuyama’s pedigree in U.S. Opens, as he has finished in the top 40 in 11 of his 12 appearances. Hideki’s elite ball-striking should be a great fit for Oakmont this week.

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Cameron Smith: Miss the Cut, -115

Cameron Smith is a major winner and has finished fourth in two U.S. Opens. However, his success is highly predicated on the course he is playing. His major win came at St. Andrews and his top fours in the U.S. Open came at Chambers Bay and Los Angeles Country Club. All of those courses offer width and the ability to recover from an errant shot. Smith’s largest weakness in his game is that he drives it shorter and less accurately than average. He is near dead last in overall driving metrics in this field. Oakmont punishes poor tee shots with thick rough and deep bunkers. He may be one of the best putters in the world, but it won’t mean much this week if he is putting for bogeys. The cut rule for the U.S. Open – top 60 and ties – is also a little more challenging. Smith is very likely going to miss the cut in his fourth consecutive major this week.

Round One 3-Ball: Aaron Rai +110 over Marc Leishman and Nick Dunlap

Nick Dunlap has struggled immensely in 2025, especially off the tee, ranking dead last in the field by a wide margin. This will make it very hard for him to put up any sub-75 score. That leaves us with Marc Leishman and Aaron Rai. Leishman has struggled historically in U.S. Opens, only finishing better than 35th three times in 11 appearances. He hasn’t been in the best form since joining LIV Golf, but did win at Trump National Doral earlier this year. Rai, on the other hand, is one of the most consistent ball-strikers on Tour, leads in fairways hit, and is top 20 in approach, as well. He is a very methodical player who doesn’t mind making par. Getting plus money in round one in this group of three players is great odds to back Rai.

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