Paulie’s Picks: 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge

The PGA Tour returns to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge, held at historic Colonial Country Club. Last week was all about distance and bombing driver on most holes. This week is all about position and precision off the tee to avoid the rough and trees and attack these traditionally firm greens. Colonial is one of the few courses on Tour that requires a completely different skillset and strategy than a normal week. You will want to target players who can keep the ball in play off the tee and who are above average with their irons, especially from 125 to 175 yards, where about half of the approach shots come from. Let’s take a look at two players to target this week that fit this course perfectly:

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‍Daniel Berger: Top 20 +125

Berger won at Colonial in 2020 right after the resumption of play post-COVID. That was a great win against a star-studded field and showed Berger’s potential. He’s an extremely accurate driver of the ball who relies on tactically attacking the course by picking up birdies and minimizing mistakes. He also ranks third in this field in approach play, which, when combined with accurate driving should have him in contention. The Bermuda rough here isn’t the longest but it does cause plenty of issues on approach firm greens. Berger has finished 33rd or better in each of his last 10 starts, many of which came on courses that don’t fit his game well. Colonial is the best course on Tour for his skill set. Lock in Berger for a top 20 at +125 this week.

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Brian Harman: Top 30 +120 & 60/1 to win

Harman has finished 31st or better in nine of his last ten starts at Colonial. He continues to be undervalued in the market, which is hard to explain. He has elite consistency as he has only missed two cuts in the last 13 months. Harman fits the course perfectly with his accuracy off the tee and above-average short iron and putting game. A price of +120 for a top 30 is a really good price considering we have a relatively weak field of 135 players. Harman already has a win this year at Valero, so I don’t mind backing him to win at 60/1 this week as well.